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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Illinois ]

Illinois governor

JB Pritzker (D)vsDarren Bailey (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Solid D

99+ in 100

JB Pritzker favored>99%

All but certain for JB Pritzker: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: JB Pritzker up 18.5.

  • Margin:Pritzker +18.9, give or take 6.1
  • Polls:3, averaging Pritzker +18.5
  • Latest poll:ActiVote, Oct 22, Pritzker +17.4
  • Generic ballot:D+8.4

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Pritzker +18.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.1 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Pritzker +18.9
Uncertainty
give or take 6.1 points, the usual size of a miss
Likely range
Pritzker +11.1 to Pritzker +26.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
Pritzker +18.5 across 3 polls, about as much information as 1 fresh poll
Starting point
Pritzker +23.8 before any polls, give or take 21.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Pritzker ahead is positive, Bailey ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 3 public polls

  • ActiVotePritzker +17.4
    Oct 22 · unrated · 400 LV59 to 41 · 71% weight
    adjusted Pritzker +17.9
  • Public Policy PollingPritzker +20
    Oct 01 · B+ · 569 RV54 to 34 · 29% weight
    adjusted Pritzker +19.8
  • Victory ResearchPritzker +20.3
    Nov 24 · B/C · 1,200 LV54 to 34 · 0% weight

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Campaign money // State filings

Counting the campaign accounts…

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
JB Pritzker (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
JB Pritzker (D, incumbent) vs Darren Bailey (R). Also on the ballot: Collin Corbett
Last time
2022: J. B. Pritzker (D) 54.9, Darren Bailey (R) 42.4. Pritzker by 12.5.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.5, Harris 54.4. Harris by 10.9.
The raters
Cook Solid D · Sabato Safe D · Inside Elections Solid D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, one wider margin of error
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. Since 19 October the starting guess carries a margin of error twice the Senate's, and three times where the race has polls, so the polls get most of the say. A backtest on 289 past governor races set those two widths; everything else comes from the Senate backtest. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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