T-minus 13 days
[ The governors ]
Path to 26
36 governors are on the ballot. A majority of the 50 is 26; Democrats hold 24 today, Republicans 26.
▸ Governors // A race to 26
Every dot is a seat · click it to open the race
27
Governorships Democrats would hold: 6 not on the ballot + 21 favored
23
Governorships Republicans would hold: 8 not on the ballot + 15 favored
The race to 26
Democrats need 20 of the 36 on the ballot to reach 26, since 26 of 50 is most. Republicans need 18. Democrats reach 26 on safe and lean governorships alone, 1 to spare, and no race is a coin flip.
Chance Democrats hold most governorships
7 in 1069%On average
Democrats end up with 27 governors. Eight times in ten, somewhere from 23 to 32.
Governor 26
Oregon is the race that decides the majority: win it and every race safer than it, and Democrats have one. The model has Kotek at 66%.
22
Safe Dem
5
Lean Dem
0
Coin flip
7
Lean Rep
16
Safe Rep
Safe is 85 in 100 or better. A coin flip is any seat where neither side clears 55 in 100, the same line the maps use. Lean is everything between. Safe Dem includes the 6 Democratic governors not on the ballot this year and Safe Rep the 8 Republican ones, the faded dots at the two ends.
▸ Governors // Path to 26, the 36 races this year
Why 36 governors matter
Whoever wins in November serves from January 2027 to January 2031: in office for the 2028 presidential election and its certification, for the 2030 census count, and for any mid decade redrawing of House maps, which both parties tried in 2025. The 2031 maps themselves are signed by the governors elected in 2030, and most governors who run again win, so the 2026 winner is the favorite to hold that pen.
Deeper color, more certain · gold, a coin flip · a ring in the other party's color, projected to change hands · grey, no governor's race this year · click a legend item to spotlight those states
Lean R · open seat
Bottoms vs Jackson
6 in 1057%A slight edge for Rick Jackson. Polls: Rick Jackson up 1.5.
Jackson +1.1 projected · 15 polls · Cook: Tossup
Last time
2022: Brian Kemp (R) 53.4, Stacey Abrams (D) 45.9. Kemp by 7.5. In 2024 here: Trump 50.7, Harris 48.5. Trump by 2.2.
Governors The 36 governor races run through the Senate rules with one wider margin of error on the starting guess, and 26 of 50 is a majority. Today 24 governors are Democrats and 26 Republicans, 6 D and 8 R of them not on the ballot this year. No governor backtest exists yet; the limitation is on the math page.
▸ Every race // 36, most Democratic first
| State | Matchup | The seat | Model | Lilly |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe D 16 | ||||
| Rhode Island | Foulkes vs Guckian | Open | Foulkes >99% | · |
| Maryland | Moore vs Cox | D held | Moore >99% | · |
| Connecticut | Lamont vs Fazio | D held | Lamont >99% | · |
| Massachusetts | Healey vs Minogue | D held | Healey >99% | · |
| Pennsylvania | Shapiro vs Garrity | D held | Shapiro >99% | · |
| Illinois | Pritzker vs Bailey | D held | Pritzker >99% | · |
| California | Becerra vs Hilton | Open | Becerra >99% | · |
| Hawaii | Green vs Cordery | D held | Green >99% | · |
| New York | Hochul vs Blakeman | D held | Hochul 98% | · |
| Maine | Pingree vs Charles | Open | Pingree 96% | · |
| Colorado | Weiser vs Marx | Open | Weiser 92% | · |
| Alaska | Kreiss-Tomkins vs Wilson | Open | Kreiss-Tomkins 91% | · |
| Arizona | Hobbs vs Biggs | D held | Hobbs 89% | · |
| Michigan | Benson vs James | Open | Benson 87% | · |
| Minnesota | Klobuchar vs Demuth | Open | Klobuchar 86% | · |
| Iowa | Sand vs Lahn | Open | Sand 86% | · |
| Lean D 5 | ||||
| New Mexico | Haaland vs Hull | Open | Haaland 82% | · |
| Wisconsin | Crowley vs Tiffany | Open | Crowley 70% | · |
| Ohio | Acton vs Ramaswamy | Open | Acton 70% | · |
| OregonGovernor 26 | Kotek vs Drazan | D held | Kotek 66% | · |
| Nevada | Ford vs Lombardo | R held | Ford 59% | · |
| Lean R 7 | ||||
| Georgia | Bottoms vs Jackson | Open | Jackson 57% | · |
| Vermont | Janoo vs Scott | R held | Scott 64% | · |
| Nebraska | Walz vs Pillen | R held | Pillen 66% | · |
| Kansas | Holscher vs Masterson | Open | Masterson 66% | · |
| Texas | Hinojosa vs Abbott | R held | Abbott 68% | · |
| Florida | Jolly vs Donalds | Open | Donalds 79% | · |
| Oklahoma | Munson vs Mazzei | Open | Mazzei 84% | · |
| Safe R 8 | ||||
| New Hampshire | Warmington vs Ayotte | R held | Ayotte 86% | · |
| South Carolina | Johnson vs Wilson | Open | Wilson 91% | · |
| Alabama | Jones vs Tuberville | Open | Tuberville 93% | · |
| Tennessee | Green vs Blackburn | Open | Blackburn 94% | · |
| Wyoming | Casner vs Barlow | Open | Barlow >99% | · |
| Arkansas | Love vs Sanders | R held | Sanders >99% | · |
| South Dakota | Ahlers vs Rhoden | R held | Rhoden >99% | · |
| Idaho | Pickens vs Little | R held | Little >99% | · |