T-minus 13 days
[ The Senate ]
Path to 51
35 seats are on the ballot. Democrats need 51 for control, because a 50 to 50 tie goes to the vice president, a Republican.
▸ Senate // A race to 51
Every dot is a seat · click it to open the race
52
Seats Democrats would hold: 34 not on the ballot + 18 favored
48
Seats Republicans would hold: 31 not on the ballot + 17 favored
The race to 51
Democrats need 17 of the 35 on the ballot to reach 51. Republicans need 19, since a 50 to 50 tie goes to the vice president, a Republican. Democrats reach 51 on safe and lean seats alone, 0 to spare, before any of the 2 coin flips is counted.
Chance Democrats control the Senate
6 in 1063%On average
Democrats end up with 52 seats, counting the independents who vote with them. Eight times in ten, somewhere from 47 to 56.
Seat 51
Texas is the race that decides the majority: win it and every race safer than it, and Democrats have one. The model has Talarico at 58%.
47
Safe Dem
4
Lean Dem
2
Coin flip
4
Lean Rep
43
Safe Rep
Safe is 85 in 100 or better. A coin flip is any seat where neither side clears 55 in 100, the same line the maps use. Lean is everything between. Safe Dem includes the 34 Democratic seats not on the ballot this year and Safe Rep the 31 Republican ones, the faded dots at the two ends.
▸ Senate // Path to 51
Deeper color, more certain · gold, a coin flip · a ring in the other party's color, projected to change hands · click a legend item to spotlight those seats
Coin flip · open seat
Turek vs Hinson
a coin flip51%A coin flip. Polls: a dead heat.
Turek +0.1 projected · 30 polls · Cook: Tossup
Last time
2020: Joni Ernst (R) 51.8, Theresa Greenfield (D) 45.2. Ernst by 6.6. In 2024 here: Trump 55.7, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.2.
▸ Every race // 35, most Democratic first
| Race | Matchup | The seat | Model | Lilly |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe D 13 | ||||
| Rhode Island | Reed vs McKay | D held | Reed >99% | · |
| Massachusetts | Markey vs Deaton | D held | Markey >99% | · |
| Delaware | Coons vs Katz | D held | Coons >99% | · |
| Oregon | Merkley vs Smith | D held | Merkley >99% | · |
| Illinois | Stratton vs Tracy | Open | Stratton >99% | · |
| New Jersey | Booker vs Murphy | D held | Booker >99% | · |
| New Mexico | Luján vs Marker | D held | Luján >99% | · |
| Colorado | Hickenlooper vs Baisley | D held | Hickenlooper >99% | · |
| Virginia | Warner vs Mizusawa | D held | Warner 99% | · |
| North Carolina | Cooper vs Whatley | Open | Cooper 95% | · |
| New Hampshire | Pappas vs Sununu | Open | Pappas 95% | · |
| Georgia | Ossoff vs Collins | D held | Ossoff 94% | · |
| Minnesota | Flanagan vs Tafoya | Open | Flanagan 88% | · |
| Lean D 4 | ||||
| Michigan | El-Sayed vs Rogers | Open | El-Sayed 79% | · |
| Maine | Jackson vs Collins | R held | Jackson 72% | · |
| Ohio | Brown vs Husted | Special | Brown 63% | · |
| TexasSeat 51 | Talarico vs Paxton | Open | Talarico 58% | · |
| Coin flip 2 | ||||
| Iowa | Turek vs Hinson | Open | coin flip | · |
| Alaska | Peltola vs Sullivan | R held | coin flip | · |
| Lean R 4 | ||||
| Kansas | Hamilton vs Marshall | R held | Marshall 64% | · |
| Nebraska | Osborn vs Ricketts | R held | Ricketts 75% | · |
| South Carolina | Andrews vs Graham | R held | Graham 77% | · |
| Florida | Nixon vs Moody | Special | Moody 83% | · |
| Safe R 12 | ||||
| Mississippi | Colom vs Hyde-Smith | R held | Hyde-Smith 94% | · |
| Louisiana | Davis vs Letlow | Open | Letlow 96% | · |
| Montana | Bodnar vs Alme | Open | Alme 96% | · |
| South Dakota | Bengs vs Rounds | R held | Rounds 97% | · |
| Kentucky | Booker vs Barr | Open | Barr 99% | · |
| Arkansas | Shoffner vs Cotton | R held | Cotton >99% | · |
| Alabama | Wess vs Moore | Open | Moore >99% | · |
| Idaho | Achilles vs Risch | R held | Risch >99% | · |
| Oklahoma | Thomas vs Hern | Open | Hern >99% | · |
| Tennessee | Bradshaw vs Hagerty | R held | Hagerty >99% | · |
| West Virginia | Anderson vs Capito | R held | Capito >99% | · |
| Wyoming | Byrd vs Hageman | Open | Hageman >99% | · |