T-minus 16 days
[ Toss ups // 9 races inside the line ]
Too close to call
A coin flip is any race where neither side clears 55 in 100, the same line the maps use. The numbers are the model's, rerun each morning and dated October 18. The explanations are Lilly's, written by hand and dated, and the headlines come from the newsrooms named beside them.
▸ House // Wisconsin's 1st District
The numbers
Bryan Steil leads the polling average by 2.4 across 4 polls, the fundamentals lean Mitchell Berman by 1.7, and the two nearly cancel. That is why this is a coin flip.
In the news
- Wisconsin ExaminerNo Kings shifts strategy from streets to ballot boxes with early voting day of actionOct 17
- Wisconsin ExaminerIn the nation’s capital, rallygoers hoist umbrellas at No Kings get-out-the-vote eventOct 17
- Wisconsin ExaminerMadison No Kings march focuses on early voting in midterm electionsOct 17
- Wisconsin ExaminerLast-minute Trump DOJ suit in California targeting noncitizen voters alarms advocatesOct 17
▸ House // Wisconsin's 3rd District
The numbers
Polls are a dead heat across 5 polls, and the fundamentals (Derrick Van Orden by 0.1) are not enough to break the tie.
In the news
- Wisconsin ExaminerNo Kings shifts strategy from streets to ballot boxes with early voting day of actionOct 17
- Wisconsin ExaminerIn the nation’s capital, rallygoers hoist umbrellas at No Kings get-out-the-vote eventOct 17
- Wisconsin ExaminerMadison No Kings march focuses on early voting in midterm electionsOct 17
- Wisconsin ExaminerLast-minute Trump DOJ suit in California targeting noncitizen voters alarms advocatesOct 17
▸ House // Kentucky's 6th District
The numbers
Zach Dembo leads the polling average by 3.1 across 8 polls, the fundamentals lean Ralph Alvarado by 2.3, and the two nearly cancel. That is why this is a coin flip.
▸ House // Florida's 7th District
The numbers
Ryan Elijah leads the polling average by 1.9 across 1 polls, the fundamentals lean Bale Dalton by 1.2, and the two nearly cancel. That is why this is a coin flip.
In the news
- NYTBernie Sanders Visits Florida to Campaign With Angie NixonOct 17
- Florida Politics‘We appreciate your commitment to public safety’: Orange County firefighters union endorses Mike HaridopolosOct 17
- Florida PhoenixIn Florida, a first-time voter and fears of election interference at No Kings day of actionOct 17
- Florida PoliticsByron Donalds launches 50-stop bus tour to ‘meet voters where they are’Oct 17
▸ Senate // Iowa
The numbers
Polls are a dead heat across 29 polls, and the fundamentals (Ashley Hinson by 3.0) are not enough to break the tie.
▸ House // Texas's 35th District
The numbers
Carlos De La Cruz leads the polling average by 4.7 across 1 polls, the fundamentals lean Johnny Garcia by 2.9, and the two nearly cancel. That is why this is a coin flip.
In the news
Nothing in the feed mentions this race yet.
▸ House // Florida's 22nd District
The numbers
Casey Askar leads the polling average by 3.2 across 3 polls, the fundamentals lean Pia Dandiya by 2.9, and the two nearly cancel. That is why this is a coin flip.
In the news
- NYTBernie Sanders Visits Florida to Campaign With Angie NixonOct 17
- Florida Politics‘We appreciate your commitment to public safety’: Orange County firefighters union endorses Mike HaridopolosOct 17
- Florida PhoenixIn Florida, a first-time voter and fears of election interference at No Kings day of actionOct 17
- Florida PoliticsByron Donalds launches 50-stop bus tour to ‘meet voters where they are’Oct 17
▸ House // Alabama's 2nd District
The numbers
Rhett Marques leads the polling average by 4.2 across 3 polls, the fundamentals lean Shomari Figures by 2.5, and the two nearly cancel. That is why this is a coin flip.
In the news
Nothing in the feed mentions this race yet.
▸ House // Iowa's 2nd District
The numbers
Joe Mitchell leads the polling average by 2.1 across 2 polls, the fundamentals lean Lindsay James by 2.9, and the two nearly cancel. That is why this is a coin flip.