T-minus 13 days
[ The House ]
Path to 218
All 435 seats are on the ballot. Democrats need 218 for control; Republicans hold 220 today.
▸ House // A race to 218
Every dot is a seat · click it to open the race
232
Seats where Democrats are favored
203
Seats where Republicans are favored
The race to 218
Democrats reach 218 on safe and lean seats alone, 11 to spare, before a single coin flip is counted.
Chance Democrats control the House
9 in 1091%On average
Democrats win 242 seats. Eight times in ten, somewhere from 219 to 268.
Seat 218
CA-22 is the race that decides the majority: win it and every race safer than it, and Democrats have one. The model has Villegas at 74%.
Two ways to count
232 is the seats where Democrats are the favorite. 242, the number at the top of the page, is what they win on average when every seat's odds are added up. The difference is the 44 close seats that lean Republican but could still go either way.
209
Safe Dem
20
Lean Dem
7
Coin flip
44
Lean Rep
155
Safe Rep
Safe is 85 in 100 or better. A coin flip is any seat where neither side clears 55 in 100, the same line the maps use. Lean is everything between.
Why plus 27 and not 2018's 40
In 2018 a D+8.6 national vote gained Democrats 40 seats. Today's generic ballot is D+8.3, but only 97 of 435 seats sit within 10 points and 18 have no opponent at all. The map, not the mood, sets the ceiling.
▸ House // Path to 218, state by state
Color is the delegation's projected lean, deeper when one party sweeps · gold ring, at least one coin flip seat · click a state to hold it and list every district, click it again to let go · click a legend item to spotlight those states
4 seats · no coin flips
Iowa
3·1
Seats where the Democrat · the Republican is favored. Coin flips count for whoever is a hair ahead.
Today
0 D and 4 R. Democrats gain 3 if every favorite wins.
One segment per district, closest races first
All 4 districts, closest first
- IA-01BohannanD 56%
- IA-02JamesD 57%
- IA-03GarriottD 64%
- IA-04McGowanR 99%
▸ Every race // 435, most Democratic first
| District | Matchup | The seat | Model | Lilly |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe D 209 | ||||
| Lean D 20 | ||||
| NC-01 | Davis vs Buckhout | D held | Davis 85% | · |
| WA-03 | Perez vs Braun | D held | Perez 84% | · |
| AZ-01 | Shah vs Feely | Open | Shah 83% | · |
| NJ-07 | Bennett vs Jr. | R held | Bennett 80% | · |
| NY-17 | Conley vs Lawler | R held | Conley 79% | · |
| CO-08 | Rutinel vs Evans | R held | Rutinel 76% | · |
| VA-02 | Luria vs Kiggans | R held | Luria 75% | · |
| PA-07 | Brooks vs Mackenzie | R held | Brooks 74% | · |
| CA-22Seat 218 | Villegas vs Valadao | R held | Villegas 74% | · |
| PA-01 | Harvie vs Fitzpatrick | R held | Harvie 68% | · |
| MI-07 | Lawrence vs Barrett | R held | Lawrence 66% | · |
| OH-09 | Kaptur vs Merrin | D held | Kaptur 65% | · |
| AZ-06 | Mendoza vs Ciscomani | R held | Mendoza 65% | · |
| IA-03 | Garriott vs Nunn | R held | Garriott 64% | · |
| MI-10 | Hines vs Bouchard | Open | Hines 61% | · |
| ME-02 | Dunlap vs LePage | Open | Dunlap 61% | · |
| PA-10 | Stelson vs Perry | R held | Stelson 58% | · |
| IA-02 | James vs Mitchell | Open | James 57% | · |
| VA-01 | Taylor vs Wittman | R held | Taylor 57% | · |
| IA-01 | Bohannan vs Miller-Meeks | R held | Bohannan 56% | · |
| Coin flip 7 | ||||
| FL-22 | Dandiya vs Askar | Open | coin flip | · |
| WI-03 | Cooke vs Orden | R held | coin flip | · |
| KY-06 | Dembo vs Alvarado | Open | coin flip | · |
| WI-01 | Berman vs Steil | R held | coin flip | · |
| TX-35 | Garcia vs Cruz | Open | coin flip | · |
| AL-02 | Figures vs Marques | D held | coin flip | · |
| FL-07 | Dalton vs Elijah | Open | coin flip | · |
| Lean R 44 | ||||
| MI-04 | McCann vs Huizenga | R held | Huizenga 56% | · |
| OH-10 | Knickerbocker vs Turner | R held | Turner 56% | · |
| MT-01 | Forstag vs Flint | Open | Flint 57% | · |
| MO-02 | Wellman vs Wagner | R held | Wagner 58% | · |
| PA-08 | Cognetti vs Bresnahan | R held | Bresnahan 58% | · |
| FL-09 | Soto vs Green | D held | Green 59% | · |
| MN-01 | Johnson vs Finstad | R held | Finstad 62% | · |
| NC-11 | Ager vs Balkcom | R held | Balkcom 65% | · |
| TX-15 | Pulido vs Cruz | R held | Cruz 66% | · |
| OH-07 | Poindexter vs Miller | R held | Miller 67% | · |
| FL-04 | Holloway vs Bean | R held | Bean 68% | · |
| NV-02 | Benitez-Thompson vs Flippo | Open | Flippo 69% | · |
| OH-15 | Leonard vs Carey | R held | Carey 69% | · |
| FL-11 | Pericola vs Strada | Open | Strada 69% | · |
| FL-16 | Kirschner vs Gruters | Open | Gruters 70% | · |
| GA-01 | Hollowell vs Kingston | Open | Kingston 70% | · |
| TX-32 | Barrios vs Yarbrough | Open | Yarbrough 70% | · |
| AR-02 | Jones vs Hill | R held | Hill 70% | · |
| CO-05 | Killin vs Crank | R held | Crank 71% | · |
| TX-23 | Stout vs Herrera | Open | Herrera 72% | · |
| NE-01 | Backemeyer vs Flood | R held | Flood 72% | · |
| NY-01 | Gallant vs LaLota | R held | LaLota 72% | · |
| NY-21 | Gendebien vs Constantino | Open | Constantino 73% | · |
| FL-13 | Gray vs Luna | R held | Luna 75% | · |
| CO-03 | Romero vs Hurd | R held | Hurd 75% | · |
| NY-02 | Halpin vs Garbarino | R held | Garbarino 76% | · |
| SC-01 | Lacore vs Honeycutt | Open | Honeycutt 77% | · |
| FL-27 | Rodriguez vs Salazar | R held | Salazar 79% | · |
| VA-05 | Perriello vs McGuire | R held | McGuire 80% | · |
| WA-05 | Conroy vs Baumgartner | R held | Baumgartner 82% | · |
| GA-12 | Smith vs Allen | R held | Allen 82% | · |
| FL-21 | Martin vs Mast | R held | Mast 82% | · |
| FL-12 | Overman vs Bilirakis | R held | Bilirakis 82% | · |
| MN-08 | Swanson vs Stauber | R held | Stauber 82% | · |
| FL-26 | Locklin vs Díaz-Balart | R held | Díaz-Balart 82% | · |
| SC-02 | Khalifa vs Wilson | R held | Wilson 83% | · |
| TX-09 | Gutierrez vs Mealer | Open | Mealer 83% | · |
| NC-03 | Jr. vs Murphy | R held | Murphy 83% | · |
| WA-04 | Duresky vs McKinney | Open | McKinney 84% | · |
| TX-38 | McDonough vs Bonck | Open | Bonck 84% | · |
| AZ-02 | Nez vs Crane | R held | Crane 84% | · |
| TX-21 | Hook vs Teixeira | Open | Teixeira 84% | · |
| AZ-05 | Lee vs Lamb | Open | Lamb 84% | · |
| TN-09 | Pearson vs Taylor | Open | Taylor 85% | · |
| Safe R 155 | ||||