Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 13 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Alabama ]

Alabama governor

Doug Jones (D)vsTommy Tuberville (R)

open seat · Cook: Solid R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Solid R

9 in 10

Tommy Tuberville favored93%

Very likely for Tommy Tuberville: a 93 percent chance of winning. Polls: Tommy Tuberville up 11.0.

  • Office:Open seat
  • Cook:Solid R
  • Sabato:Safe R
  • Inside Elections:Solid R
  • Odds:Tuberville 93%
  • Margin:Tuberville +11.9, give or take 7.1
  • Polls:5, averaging Tuberville +11.0
  • Latest poll:Cygnal Political, Oct 17, Tuberville +11.2
  • Generic ballot:D+8.3
  • T-minus:13 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Tuberville +11.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 7.1 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Tuberville +11.9
Uncertainty
7.1 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Tuberville +21.0 to Tuberville +2.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
Tuberville +11.0 across 5 polls, worth 1.6 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Tuberville +22.1 before any polls, give or take 24.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Jones ahead is positive, Tuberville ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 5 public polls

  • Cygnal PoliticalTuberville +11.2
    Oct 17 · A · 500 LV40 to 51 · 55% weight
    adjusted Tuberville +10.4
  • The Alabama PollTuberville +12
    Oct 16 · unrated · 600 LV39 to 51 · 38% weight
  • RMG ResearchTuberville +13
    Sep 25 · B · 800 RV37 to 50 · 7% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Tuberville +10.0
  • yes. every kid. foundation.Tuberville +8
    Jul 11 · unrated · 601 LV41 to 49 · 0% weight
  • Cygnal PoliticalTuberville +18.5
    Nov 13 · A · 605 LV34 to 53 · 0% weight
    adjusted Tuberville +17.7

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Campaign money // State filings

Counting the campaign accounts…

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Kay Ivey (R) is term limited. Open seat.
On the ballot
Doug Jones (D) vs Tommy Tuberville (R)
Last time
2022: Kay Ivey (R) 66.9, Yolanda Flowers (D) 29.2. Ivey by 37.7.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 64.6, Harris 34.1. Trump by 30.5.
The raters
Cook Solid R · Sabato Safe R · Inside Elections Solid R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, one wider margin of error
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. Since 19 October the starting guess carries a margin of error twice the Senate's, and three times where the race has polls, so the polls get most of the say. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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