T-minus 16 days
[ About // The site, not the person ]
One forecast, in the open
Lilly Predicts is a forecast of the November 3, 2026 midterms. This page says what that means and what it does not.
▸ Things to try // Easy to miss, worth a click
- The daily brief ▸
The day's story in five minutes: what moved, the new polls, the lines crossed, and the board as it stands. One page per day, back to August 5.
- The time machine ▸
Seventy five days of the forecast played back in about fifteen seconds. The board itself moves, day by day, from August 5 to today.
- The stress test ▸
Drag one slider and every race takes the same polling miss at once. Presets replay the real misses of 2016, 2020 and 2024.
- The map ▸
Senate, House and governors on one map, with a filter that spotlights the coin flips or the seats changing hands. Click a state for its race file.
- The House ring ▸
All 435 seats, one dot each, with the line at 218. Hover names the district, click opens the race.
- Race files ▸
A page for every Senate seat, House district and governorship, 470 in all, with every poll and the weight it got. Start with Iowa.
- Lilly vs the model ▸
Her calls beside the model's numbers, dated, with her reasons where the two disagree. Both get scored on November 3.
- Toss ups ▸
Every race under 55 percent either way, with the numbers, what the race is about, and that state's headlines.
- The math and the track record ▸
Every rule written out, and how the same rules did on 215 past races, including where they lost to a plain poll average.
- Election night ▸
A live board for November 3: the calls as they come, the path to control, and a needle that moves with the results.
▸ What this is
One person's forecast of the 2026 midterms, built from public polls and the history of polling error.
The rules were written down before the numbers were run, and they have not moved since. Every one of them is on the math page.
Every call is dated and never edited. The track record is public, including where the model loses to a plain poll average.
▸ What it is not
The headlines on the site come from the newsrooms named beside them. None of them feed the model.
Not a paid product. No ads, no subscriptions, no predictions for sale.
▸ Who makes it
Lilly is a first name, on purpose. Judge the work by the record.
▸ Sources
Polls from PollResults.org, which carries the New York Times' poll data. Pollster ratings from Silver Bulletin. District leans from Wikipedia. Race facts from Ballotpedia, restated in our own words.
How each one is weighed is written out on the math page.
▸ Corrections
A wrong number, a stale fact, a broken link: write to hello@lillypredicts.com.
▸ Reuse
The forecasts, charts and text here are Lilly's. Link to them, quote them, screenshot them, with attribution and a link back.
The poll data belongs to its sources, and their terms apply to it.