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T-minus 13 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // New York ]

New York governor

Kathy Hochul (D)vsBruce Blakeman (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Likely D

9 in 10

Kathy Hochul favored98%

All but certain for Kathy Hochul: a 98 percent chance of winning. Polls: Kathy Hochul up 12.6.

  • Office:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Solid D
  • Sabato:Safe D
  • Inside Elections:Likely D
  • Odds:Hochul 98%
  • Margin:Hochul +13.1, give or take 5.2
  • Polls:26, averaging Hochul +12.6
  • Latest poll:OnMessage Inc., Oct 14, Hochul +4.4
  • Generic ballot:D+8.3
  • T-minus:13 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Hochul +13.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Hochul +13.1
Uncertainty
5.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Hochul +6.4 to Hochul +19.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
Hochul +12.6 across 26 polls, worth 2.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Hochul +21.5 before any polls, give or take 21.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Hochul ahead is positive, Blakeman ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 26 public polls

  • OnMessage Inc.Hochul +4.4
    Oct 14 · A · 1,000 LV50 to 46 · 27% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Hochul +7.4
  • Beacon ResearchHochul +22
    Oct 06 · B/C · 820 RV53 to 31 · 14% weight
    Partisan sponsor
  • Emerson CollegeHochul +12.7
    Oct 05 · A · 900 LV52 to 40 · 24% weight
    adjusted Hochul +14.2
  • Marist UniversityHochul +11
    Oct 04 · A- · 1,361 RV53 to 42 · 18% weight
    adjusted Hochul +9.5
  • co/efficientHochul +7
    Sep 25 · B · 1,046 LV48 to 41 · 6% weight
    adjusted Hochul +9.7
  • Quinnipiac UniversityHochul +19
    Sep 20 · B+ · 1,026 LV58 to 39 · 8% weight
    adjusted Hochul +20.2

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Campaign money // State filings

Counting the campaign accounts…

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Kathy Hochul (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Kathy Hochul (D, incumbent) vs Bruce Blakeman (R)
Last time
2022: Kathy Hochul (D) 53.2, Lee Zeldin (R) 46.8. Hochul by 6.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.3, Harris 55.9. Harris by 12.6.
The raters
Cook Solid D · Sabato Safe D · Inside Elections Likely D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, one wider margin of error
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. Since 19 October the starting guess carries a margin of error twice the Senate's, and three times where the race has polls, so the polls get most of the say. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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