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T-minus 12 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Pennsylvania ]

Pennsylvania governor

Josh Shapiro (D)vsStacy Garrity (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Solid D

99 in 100

Josh Shapiro favored>99%

All but certain for Josh Shapiro: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Josh Shapiro up 23.6.

  • Office:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Solid D
  • Sabato:Safe D
  • Inside Elections:Solid D
  • Odds:Shapiro >99%
  • Margin:Shapiro +23.3, give or take 5.2
  • Polls:21, averaging Shapiro +23.6
  • Latest poll:ActiVote, Oct 21, Shapiro +23.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.5
  • T-minus:12 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Shapiro +23.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Shapiro +23.3
Uncertainty
5.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Shapiro +16.6 to Shapiro +30.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
Shapiro +23.6 across 21 polls, worth 2.5 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Shapiro +18.7 before any polls, give or take 21.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Shapiro ahead is positive, Garrity ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 21 public polls

  • ActiVoteShapiro +23
    Oct 21 · unrated · 400 LV62 to 39 · 40% weight
    adjusted Shapiro +23.4
  • Bravo GroupShapiro +30.1
    Oct 11 · unrated · 628 RV58 to 28 · 10% weight
    adjusted Shapiro +28.0
  • Quinnipiac UniversityShapiro +25
    Oct 05 · B+ · 1,159 LV59 to 34 · 18% weight
    adjusted Shapiro +25.9
  • Z to A ResearchShapiro +19
    Oct 01 · unrated · 630 LV53 to 34 · 6% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Shapiro +17.1
  • Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc.Shapiro +21
    Sep 30 · A- · 700 LV52 to 31 · 12% weight
    adjusted Shapiro +22.1
  • Bravo GroupShapiro +27.4
    Sep 22 · unrated · 624 RV55 to 28 · 3% weight
    adjusted Shapiro +25.3

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Campaign money // State filings

Counting the campaign accounts…

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Josh Shapiro (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Josh Shapiro (D, incumbent) vs Stacy Garrity (R). Also on the ballot: Ken Krawchuk
Last time
2022: Josh Shapiro (D) 56.5, Doug Mastriano (R) 41.7. Shapiro by 14.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.4, Harris 48.7. Trump by 1.7.
The raters
Cook Solid D · Sabato Safe D · Inside Elections Solid D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, one wider margin of error
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. Since 19 October the starting guess carries a margin of error twice the Senate's, and three times where the race has polls, so the polls get most of the say. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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