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T-minus 13 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // South Carolina ]

South Carolina governor

Jermaine Johnson (D)vsAlan Wilson (R)

open seat · Cook: Solid R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Solid R

9 in 10

Alan Wilson favored91%

Very likely for Alan Wilson: a 91 percent chance of winning. Polls: Alan Wilson up 11.0.

  • Office:Open seat
  • Cook:Solid R
  • Sabato:Safe R
  • Inside Elections:Solid R
  • Odds:Wilson 91%
  • Margin:Wilson +10.7, give or take 7.1
  • Polls:4, averaging Wilson +11.0
  • Latest poll:Trafalgar Group, Oct 18, Wilson +16.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.3
  • T-minus:13 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Wilson +10.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 7.1 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Wilson +10.7
Uncertainty
7.1 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Wilson +19.8 to Wilson +1.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
Wilson +11.0 across 4 polls, worth 1.5 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Wilson +7.6 before any polls, give or take 24.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Johnson ahead is positive, Wilson ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 4 public polls

  • Trafalgar GroupWilson +16
    Oct 18 · B · 1,095 LV37 to 53 · 65% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Wilson +13.0
  • National Public AffairsWilson +10
    Oct 16 · B/C · 604 LV41 to 51 · 35% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Wilson +7.4
  • Hart Research AssociatesWilson +7
    Aug 15 · A- · 600 LV41 to 48 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Wilson +9.1
  • Public Policy PollingWilson +8
    Jul 17 · B+ · 577 RV37 to 45 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Wilson +9.3

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Campaign money // State filings

Counting the campaign accounts…

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Henry McMaster (R) is term limited. Open seat.
On the ballot
Jermaine Johnson (D) vs Alan Wilson (R). Also on the ballot: Michael Addison, Walid Hakim
Last time
2022: Henry McMaster (R) 58.1, Joe Cunningham (D) 40.7. McMaster by 17.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 58.2, Harris 40.4. Trump by 17.9.
The raters
Cook Solid R · Sabato Safe R · Inside Elections Solid R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, one wider margin of error
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. Since 19 October the starting guess carries a margin of error twice the Senate's, and three times where the race has polls, so the polls get most of the say. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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