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T-minus 13 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Tennessee ]

Tennessee governor

Jerri Green (D)vsMarsha Blackburn (R)

open seat · Cook: Solid R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Solid R

9 in 10

Marsha Blackburn favored94%

Very likely for Marsha Blackburn: a 94 percent chance of winning. Polls: Marsha Blackburn up 11.6.

  • Office:Open seat
  • Cook:Solid R
  • Sabato:Safe R
  • Inside Elections:Solid R
  • Odds:Blackburn 94%
  • Margin:Blackburn +12.4, give or take 7.1
  • Polls:5, averaging Blackburn +11.6
  • Latest poll:Spry Strategies, Oct 16, Blackburn +11.5
  • Generic ballot:D+8.3
  • T-minus:13 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Blackburn +12.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 7.1 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Blackburn +12.4
Uncertainty
7.1 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Blackburn +21.5 to Blackburn +3.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
Blackburn +11.6 across 5 polls, worth 0.8 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Blackburn +20.1 before any polls, give or take 24.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Green ahead is positive, Blackburn ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 5 public polls

  • Spry StrategiesBlackburn +11.5
    Oct 16 · B/C · 635 LV32 to 44 · 95% weight
  • TargetSmartBlackburn +9
    Sep 12 · B/C · 600 LV36 to 45 · 3% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Blackburn +12.0
  • Targoz Market ResearchBlackburn +21
    Aug 26 · B- · 601 LV34 to 55 · 2% weight
    adjusted Blackburn +18.2
  • Targoz Market ResearchBlackburn +24
    Apr 27 · B- · 1,157 RV27 to 51 · 0% weight
    adjusted Blackburn +21.2
  • Quantus InsightsBlackburn +21
    Aug 07 · B/C · 600 RV28 to 49 · 0% weight
    adjusted Blackburn +19.3

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Campaign money // State filings

Counting the campaign accounts…

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Bill Lee (R) is term limited. Open seat.
On the ballot
Jerri Green (D) vs Marsha Blackburn (R). Also on the ballot: Misam Abidi, Santiago Asconape, Dean Brewer, Ray Brown, Taylor Hafley, David Hatley, Wendell Jackson, Charles Van Morgan, Eddie Lee Murphy, Lauren Pinkston, Karl Smithson, L. Webb Taylor, Robert Vick
Last time
2022: Bill Lee (R) 64.9, Jason Martin (D) 32.9. Lee by 32.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 64.2, Harris 34.5. Trump by 29.7.
The raters
Cook Solid R · Sabato Safe R · Inside Elections Solid R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, one wider margin of error
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. Since 19 October the starting guess carries a margin of error twice the Senate's, and three times where the race has polls, so the polls get most of the say. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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