T-minus 11 days
[ Early vote ]
Who is voting
Who has voted early, state by state. Counts who voted, not how.
Where the energy is
Biggest swing
Kansas
+21
point swing toward Democrats
Against all of 2022's early vote, so early weeks can overstate it
Independents
North Carolina
+5
point jump in independents
More people voting
North Carolina
+38%
more early votes than the same day in 2022
LILLY SAYS: Each state below shows how many people have already voted early, which party they registered with (not how they voted), and how that stacks up against 2022, the last midterm. Democrats vote early and Republicans wait for Election Day, so a blue lead is the weather, not the forecast. The tell is the swing since 2022, and the independents, because they decide most of these races.
Races to watch // Senate
Iowa
No real change since 2022
Independents steady since 2022
As of October 22
House toss up: IA-02
167,195 early votes so far, already 49% of all of 2022's early votes.
Who: Democrats 52%, Republicans 31%, independents 17%.
More Republicans are registered, yet 16 in every 100 Democrats have voted, against 7 in every 100 Republicans.
End of early voting in 2022: Democrats by 19, independents 16%. Now: Democrats by 20, independents 17%. Early weeks lean toward whoever mails first, so this can overstate the swing. 2022 source
Kansas
+21point swing toward Democrats
Independents steady since 2022
As of October 22
122,344 early votes so far, already 33% of all of 2022's early votes.
Who: Democrats 49%, Republicans 38%, independents 13%.
About one and a half times as many Republicans are registered, yet 12 in every 100 Democrats have voted, against 5 in every 100 Republicans.
End of early voting in 2022: Republicans by 10, independents 13%. Now: Democrats by 11, independents 13%. Early weeks lean toward whoever mails first, so this can overstate the swing. 2022 source
Maine
+7point swing toward Democrats
+2point jump in independents
As of October 21 · registration from March 7
135,484 early votes so far, already 61% of all of 2022's early votes.
Who: Democrats 52%, Republicans 20%, independents 28%.
About as many Democrats as Republicans are registered, so turnout is the gap: 23 in every 100 Democrats have voted, against 10 in every 100 Republicans.
End of early voting in 2022: Democrats by 25, independents 26%. Now: Democrats by 32, independents 28%. Early weeks lean toward whoever mails first, so this can overstate the swing. 2022 source
North Carolina
+13point swing toward Democrats
+5point jump in independents
As of October 21
House toss ups: NC-01, NC-11
1,101,318 early votes so far: 38% more than on the same day in 2022.
Who: Democrats 43%, Republicans 23%, independents 34%.
About as many Democrats as Republicans are registered, so turnout is the gap: 20 in every 100 Democrats have voted, against 11 in every 100 Republicans.
Same day in 2022: Democrats by 8, independents 29%. Now: Democrats by 21, independents 34%. 2022 source
LILLY SAYS: The other eight don't sort voters by party, or haven't published it yet, so I can tell you how many have voted but not who.
Alaska
26,328
78% of 2022's early vote
Georgia
1,467,650
58% of 2022's early vote
Michigan
920,773
60% of 2022's early vote
House toss ups: MI-04, MI-07, MI-10
Minnesota
202,252
34% of 2022's early vote
New Hampshire
Not yet
No early count published
Ohio
838,018
60% of 2022's early vote
House toss ups: OH-07, OH-09
South Carolina
280,114
45% of 2022's early vote
Texas
2,270,617
41% of 2022's early vote
House toss ups: TX-15, TX-34
Races to watch // House
LILLY SAYS: Every other state with a House toss up. Early votes are counted statewide, so this is the mood of the state, not the district. Where the count doesn't say who by party, all I have is the number.
Arizona
No real change since 2022
-2points fewer independents
As of October 22 · registration from July 21
House toss up: AZ-06
743,697 early votes so far, already 49% of all of 2022's early votes.
Who: Democrats 39%, Republicans 38%, independents 23%.
More Republicans are registered, yet 24 in every 100 Democrats have voted, against 19 in every 100 Republicans.
End of early voting in 2022: Democrats by 1, independents 25%. Now: even, independents 23%. Early weeks lean toward whoever mails first, so this can overstate the swing. 2022 source
Florida
+8point swing toward Democrats
Independents steady since 2022
As of October 22
House toss ups: FL-07, FL-14, FL-22
1,981,475 early votes so far, already 40% of all of 2022's early votes.
Who: Democrats 41%, Republicans 39%, independents 21%.
More Republicans are registered, yet 20 in every 100 Democrats have voted, against 14 in every 100 Republicans.
End of early voting in 2022: Republicans by 6, independents 20%. Now: Democrats by 2, independents 21%. Early weeks lean toward whoever mails first, so this can overstate the swing. 2022 source
Pennsylvania
+5point swing toward Republicans
Independents steady since 2022
As of October 22
House toss up: PA-08
723,055 early votes so far, already 61% of all of 2022's early votes.
Who: Democrats 67%, Republicans 24%, independents 9%.
About as many Democrats as Republicans are registered, so turnout is the gap: 13 in every 100 Democrats have voted, against 5 in every 100 Republicans.
End of early voting in 2022: Democrats by 48, independents 10%. Now: Democrats by 43, independents 9%. Early weeks lean toward whoever mails first, so this can overstate the swing. 2022 source
Alabama
Not yet
No early count published
House toss up: AL-02
California
2,478,771
48% of 2022's early vote
House toss up: CA-22
Colorado
726,213
42% of 2022's early vote
House toss up: CO-08
Missouri
Not yet
No early count published
House toss up: MO-02
Montana
137,265
44% of 2022's early vote
House toss up: MT-01
New York
Not yet
No early count published
House toss up: NY-17
Virginia
870,213
94% of 2022's early vote
House toss ups: VA-01, VA-02
Wisconsin
420,287
58% of 2022's early vote
House toss ups: WI-01, WI-03
Other states that register by party
Nebraska
+11point swing toward Democrats
+2point jump in independents
As of October 22
125,954 early votes so far, already 53% of all of 2022's early votes.
Who: Democrats 42%, Republicans 41%, independents 17%.
Nearly twice as many Republicans are registered, yet 16 in every 100 Democrats have voted, against 8 in every 100 Republicans.
End of early voting in 2022: Republicans by 11, independents 15%. Now: even, independents 17%. Early weeks lean toward whoever mails first, so this can overstate the swing. 2022 source
Nevada
+4point swing toward Democrats
+2point jump in independents
As of October 22
284,851 early votes so far, already 41% of all of 2022's early votes.
Who: Democrats 40%, Republicans 36%, independents 25%.
End of early voting in 2022: even, independents 23%. Now: Democrats by 4, independents 25%. Early weeks lean toward whoever mails first, so this can overstate the swing. 2022 source
An early vote is one person who has already voted, by mail or in person. Bars: the share of each party's own registered voters who have voted. 2022: North Carolina on the same day, the others at the end of early voting (UF Election Lab), so a rough guide.
Every state at a glance
LILLY SAYS: How many people in each state have already voted early, and what that equals as a share of everyone who voted there in 2022, early or on Election Day. A big share mostly means a state that likes to vote early. Who those voters are is up in Who's voting.
| State | Early votes so far | Equal to this much of the 2022 vote | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 1,467,650 | 37% | October 22 |
| Tennessee | 577,423 | 33% | October 22 |
| Vermont | 88,111 | 30% | October 22 |
| Montana | 137,265 | 29% | October 22 |
| North Carolina | 1,101,318 | 29% | October 21 |
| Virginia | 870,213 | 29% | October 22 |
| Arizona | 743,697 | 29% | October 22 |
| Colorado | 726,213 | 29% | October 22 |
| Texas | 2,270,617 | 28% | October 22 |
| Nevada | 284,851 | 28% | October 22 |
| New Mexico | 187,880 | 26% | October 22 |
| Florida | 1,981,475 | 25% | October 22 |
| California | 2,478,771 | 22% | October 22 |
| Massachusetts | 541,346 | 22% | October 22 |
| Michigan | 920,773 | 21% | October 22 |
| Washington | 616,612 | 20% | October 22 |
| Maine | 135,484 | 20% | October 21 |
| Ohio | 838,018 | 20% | October 22 |
| Idaho | 115,031 | 19% | October 22 |
| Hawaii | 79,348 | 19% | October 22 |
| Nebraska | 125,954 | 18% | October 22 |
| Arkansas | 164,678 | 18% | October 22 |
| South Carolina | 280,114 | 16% | October 22 |
| New Jersey | 417,489 | 16% | October 22 |
| Wisconsin | 420,287 | 16% | October 22 |
| DC | 31,649 | 15% | October 22 |
| Rhode Island | 54,306 | 15% | October 22 |
| Wyoming | 29,348 | 15% | October 22 |
| Illinois | 601,151 | 15% | October 21 |
| Indiana | 261,094 | 14% | October 22 |
| Iowa | 167,195 | 14% | October 22 |
| Oregon | 271,544 | 14% | October 22 |
| Pennsylvania | 723,055 | 13% | October 22 |
| North Dakota | 30,891 | 13% | October 22 |
| Louisiana | 175,713 | 13% | October 22 |
| Kansas | 122,344 | 12% | October 22 |
| Maryland | 242,744 | 12% | October 22 |
| South Dakota | 41,057 | 12% | October 22 |
| Connecticut | 140,815 | 11% | October 22 |
| Utah | 114,999 | 11% | October 22 |
| Alaska | 26,328 | 10% | October 22 |
| Delaware | 30,473 | 9% | October 22 |
| Minnesota | 202,252 | 8% | October 16 (older) |
| Mississippi | 29,647 | 4% | October 19 (older) |
| West Virginia | 16,922 | 3% | October 22 |
| Oklahoma | 22,874 | 2% | October 22 |
| Kentucky | 28,379 | 2% | October 22 |
Source: the UF Election Lab, North Carolina from the State Board's own file.