T-minus 16 days
● Senate // Race file
[ Senate // Alaska ]
Alaska
Mary Peltola (D)vsDan Sullivan (R)
incumbent running · Cook: Tossup · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Tossup
6 in 10
Mary Peltola favored60%
A slight edge for Mary Peltola: a 60 percent chance of winning. Polls: Mary Peltola up 5.0.
- Seat:Incumbent running
- Cook:Tossup
- Sabato:Lean D
- Inside Elections:Tossup
- Odds:Peltola 60%
- Margin:Peltola +1.4, give or take 4.5
- Polls:23, averaging Peltola +5.0
- Latest poll:InsiderAdvantage, Oct 10, Peltola +5.6
- Generic ballot:D+8.2
- T-minus:16 days
▸ Margin // Uncertainty
Peltola +1.4
The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.5 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.
- Projected margin
- Peltola +1.4
- Uncertainty
- 4.5 points, one standard deviation
- Likely range
- Sullivan +4.3 to Peltola +7.1 (80 percent)
- Poll average
- Peltola +5.0 across 23 polls, worth 2.0 fresh polls after weighting
- Starting point
- Sullivan +6.4 before any polls, give or take 8.0
How polls have done here
4 Senate races here since 2004: the final polls missed by 5.1 points on average, on balance underrating Democrats. Last time, 2020, they were off by 9.7 toward Democrats.
Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Peltola ahead is positive, Sullivan ahead is negative.
▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots
Reading the history
▸ Polls // 23 public polls
- InsiderAdvantagePeltola +5.6Oct 10 · B+ · 1,200 LV48 to 43 · 43% weightadjusted Peltola +6.4
- Alaska Survey ResearchPeltola +2Oct 03 · A/B · 1,512 LV47 to 45 · 10% weightadjusted Peltola +2.8
- The New York Times/Siena UniversityPeltola +7Oct 01 · A · 504 LV50 to 43 · 15% weightadjusted Peltola +8.4
- Quantus InsightsSullivan +0.3Sep 30 · B/C · 758 LV47 to 47 · 14% weightadjusted Peltola +2.6
- Trafalgar GroupSullivan +1.3Sep 24 · B · 1,079 LV46 to 47 · 6% weightRepublican sponsoradjusted Peltola +0.8
- co/efficientSullivan +2Sep 17 · B · 799 LV46 to 48 · 7% weightadjusted Peltola +1.0
- Alaska Survey ResearchPeltola +4.6Sep 12 · A/B · 1,352 LV48 to 44 · 2% weightadjusted Peltola +5.4
- Fabrizio Ward/Impact ResearchPeltola +5Sep 11 · B/C · 800 LV46 to 41 · 4% weightadjusted Peltola +4.9
- Alaska Survey ResearchPeltola +1.2Aug 23 · A/B · 1,495 LV51 to 49 · 1% weightadjusted Peltola +2.0
- Alaska Survey ResearchPeltola +1.6Aug 05 · A/B · 1,371 LV51 to 49 · 0% weightadjusted Peltola +2.4
- Data for ProgressPeltola +6Aug 04 · C+ · 605 LV47 to 41 · 0% weightadjusted Peltola +7.6
- The New York Times/Siena UniversitySullivan +2.4Jun 29 · A · 593 LV45 to 47 · 0% weightadjusted Sullivan +1.0
- Alaska Survey ResearchPeltola +5.2Jun 07 · A/B · 1,393 LV49 to 44 · 0% weightadjusted Peltola +6.0
- Alaska Survey ResearchPeltola +4.6May 17 · A/B · 1,401 LV48 to 44 · 0% weightadjusted Peltola +5.4
- Alaska Survey ResearchPeltola +6.6Apr 19 · A/B · 1,946 LV49 to 43 · 0% weightadjusted Peltola +7.4
- Alaska Survey ResearchPeltola +5.3Mar 22 · A/B · 1,340 RV49 to 44 · 0% weightadjusted Peltola +6.1
- Public Policy PollingPeltola +2Jan 17 · B+ · 611 RV49 to 47 · 0% weightDemocratic sponsor
- Alaska Survey ResearchPeltola +1.6Jan 11 · A/B · 1,681 LV48 to 46 · 0% weightadjusted Peltola +2.4
- Data for ProgressPeltola +1Oct 23 · C+ · 823 RV46 to 45 · 0% weightadjusted Peltola +2.6
- Alaska Survey ResearchPeltola +1.8Oct 15 · A/B · 1,708 LV48 to 46 · 0% weightadjusted Peltola +2.6
- Alaska Survey ResearchSullivan +4.2Aug 01 · A/B · 1,613 LV43 to 47 · 0% weightadjusted Sullivan +3.4
- Data for ProgressSullivan +1Jul 27 · C+ · 678 LV45 to 46 · 0% weightadjusted Peltola +0.6
- Alaska Survey ResearchPeltola +3Apr 25 · A/B · 1,261 LV44 to 41 · 0% weightadjusted Peltola +3.8
| Pollster | Grade | Date | Sample | Result | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage | B+ | Oct 10 | 1,200LV | Peltola +5.648 to 43adjusted Peltola +6.4 | 43% |
| Alaska Survey Research | A/B | Oct 03 | 1,512LV | Peltola +247 to 45adjusted Peltola +2.8 | 10% |
| The New York Times/Siena University | A | Oct 01 | 504LV | Peltola +750 to 43adjusted Peltola +8.4 | 15% |
| Quantus Insights | B/C | Sep 30 | 758LV | Sullivan +0.347 to 47adjusted Peltola +2.6 | 14% |
| Trafalgar GroupRepublican sponsor | B | Sep 24 | 1,079LV | Sullivan +1.346 to 47adjusted Peltola +0.8 | 6% |
| co/efficient | B | Sep 17 | 799LV | Sullivan +246 to 48adjusted Peltola +1.0 | 7% |
| Alaska Survey Research | A/B | Sep 12 | 1,352LV | Peltola +4.648 to 44adjusted Peltola +5.4 | 2% |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | B/C | Sep 11 | 800LV | Peltola +546 to 41adjusted Peltola +4.9 | 4% |
| Alaska Survey Research | A/B | Aug 23 | 1,495LV | Peltola +1.251 to 49adjusted Peltola +2.0 | 1% |
| Alaska Survey Research | A/B | Aug 05 | 1,371LV | Peltola +1.651 to 49adjusted Peltola +2.4 | 0% |
| Data for Progress | C+ | Aug 04 | 605LV | Peltola +647 to 41adjusted Peltola +7.6 | 0% |
| The New York Times/Siena University | A | Jun 29 | 593LV | Sullivan +2.445 to 47adjusted Sullivan +1.0 | 0% |
| Alaska Survey Research | A/B | Jun 07 | 1,393LV | Peltola +5.249 to 44adjusted Peltola +6.0 | 0% |
| Alaska Survey Research | A/B | May 17 | 1,401LV | Peltola +4.648 to 44adjusted Peltola +5.4 | 0% |
| Alaska Survey Research | A/B | Apr 19 | 1,946LV | Peltola +6.649 to 43adjusted Peltola +7.4 | 0% |
| Alaska Survey Research | A/B | Mar 22 | 1,340RV | Peltola +5.349 to 44adjusted Peltola +6.1 | 0% |
| Public Policy PollingDemocratic sponsor | B+ | Jan 17 | 611RV | Peltola +249 to 47 | 0% |
| Alaska Survey Research | A/B | Jan 11 | 1,681LV | Peltola +1.648 to 46adjusted Peltola +2.4 | 0% |
| Data for Progress | C+ | Oct 23 | 823RV | Peltola +146 to 45adjusted Peltola +2.6 | 0% |
| Alaska Survey Research | A/B | Oct 15 | 1,708LV | Peltola +1.848 to 46adjusted Peltola +2.6 | 0% |
| Alaska Survey Research | A/B | Aug 01 | 1,613LV | Sullivan +4.243 to 47adjusted Sullivan +3.4 | 0% |
| Data for Progress | C+ | Jul 27 | 678LV | Sullivan +145 to 46adjusted Peltola +0.6 | 0% |
| Alaska Survey Research | A/B | Apr 25 | 1,261LV | Peltola +344 to 41adjusted Peltola +3.8 | 0% |
Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.
▸ Race file // The facts
- The seat
- Dan Sullivan (R), running for another term.
- On the ballot
- Mary Peltola (D) vs Dan Sullivan (R, incumbent)
- Last time
- 2020: Dan Sullivan (R) 53.9, Al Gross (I) 41.2. Sullivan by 12.7.
- President
- 2024, statewide: Trump 54.5, Harris 41.4. Trump by 13.1.
- The raters
- Cook Tossup · Sabato Lean D · Inside Elections Tossup
Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗
▸ Candidates // Read more
Democrat
Mary Peltola
Peltola on Ballotpedia ↗Republican
Dan Sullivan
Sullivan on Ballotpedia ↗