Iowa

Josh Turek (D)vsAshley Hinson (R)

open seat · Cook: Tossup · Sabato: Tossup · Inside Elections: Tilt R

a coin flip

Too close to call51%

The model gives Josh Turek a 49 percent chance and Ashley Hinson 51 percent. Inside five points either way the model does not name a favorite. Polls: a dead heat.

Seat:Open seat
Cook:Tossup
Sabato:Tossup
Inside Elections:Tilt R
Odds:a coin flip, Hinson 51%
Margin:Hinson +0.2, give or take 4.5
Polls:29, averaging Turek +1.1
Latest poll:Trafalgar Group, Oct 15, Hinson +1.7
Generic ballot:D+8.2
T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Hinson +0.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.5 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin: Hinson +0.2
Uncertainty: 4.5 points, one standard deviation
Likely range: Hinson +5.9 to Turek +5.5 (80 percent)
Poll average: Turek +1.1 across 29 polls, worth 5.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point: Hinson +3.0 before any polls, give or take 8.0

How polls have done here
9 Senate races here since 1998: the final polls missed by 3.9 points on average, on balance underrating Democrats. Last time, 2022, they were off by 1.3 toward Democrats.

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Turek ahead is positive, Hinson ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 29 public polls

Trafalgar GroupHinson +1.7
Oct 15 · B · 1,094 LV44 to 46 · 8% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Turek +0.4
YouGovTurek +1
Oct 12 · B · 2,245 LV47 to 46 · 19% weight
adjusted Turek +0.4
Marist UniversityTurek +3
Oct 11 · A- · 1,100 LV48 to 45 · 16% weight
adjusted Turek +1.1
Emerson CollegeHinson +1.6
Oct 06 · A · 650 LV45 to 47 · 8% weight
adjusted Turek +0.9
CNN/SSRSHinson +2
Oct 05 · unrated · 801 LV43 to 45 · 7% weight
Suffolk UniversityTurek +4.4
Oct 04 · A- · 500 LV48 to 44 · 7% weight
adjusted Turek +4.5
The New York Times/Siena UniversityHinson +0.9
Oct 01 · A · 606 LV47 to 48 · 7% weight
adjusted Turek +0.5
Quantus InsightsHinson +1.9
Sep 29 · B/C · 738 LV47 to 49 · 5% weight
adjusted Turek +1.0
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company ResearchTurek +2
Sep 28 · A- · 1,008 LV49 to 47 · 6% weight
adjusted Turek +1.7
InsiderAdvantageTurek +1.7
Sep 23 · B+ · 1,200 LV47 to 46 · 6% weight
adjusted Turek +2.5
Marist UniversityTurek +8
Sep 20 · A- · 1,050 RV50 to 42 · 4% weight
adjusted Turek +6.1
Trafalgar GroupHinson +1.9
Sep 18 · B · 1,089 LV42 to 44 · 1% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Turek +0.2
co/efficientHinson +4
Sep 16 · B · 831 LV42 to 46 · 3% weight
adjusted Hinson +1.0
Cygnal PoliticalTie
Sep 11 · A · 500 LV43 to 43 · 1% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Turek +3.3
YouGovTurek +2
Sep 08 · B · 2,127 LV45 to 43 · 2% weight
adjusted Turek +1.4
Emerson CollegeHinson +4.4
Sep 01 · A · 750 LV45 to 49 · 1% weight
adjusted Hinson +1.9
Global Strategy GroupTurek +4
Aug 31 · B/C · 800 LV46 to 42 · <1% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Turek +1.6
Wedgewood PollsHinson +2
Aug 29 · unrated · 600 LV48 to 50 · 1% weight
adjusted Hinson +2.3
Abacus DataTurek +7
Aug 28 · unrated · 323 LV48 to 41 · <1% weight
adjusted Turek +6.7
Suffolk UniversityHinson +4.6
Aug 23 · A- · 500 LV41 to 45 · <1% weight
adjusted Hinson +4.5
Emerson CollegeHinson +2.5
Aug 04 · A · 712 LV45 to 48 · 0% weight
adjusted Even
The New York Times/Siena UniversityHinson +2.5
Jun 27 · A · 600 LV46 to 48 · 0% weight
adjusted Hinson +1.1
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company ResearchTurek +4
Jun 27 · A- · 1,003 RV50 to 46 · 0% weight
adjusted Turek +3.7
Cygnal PoliticalHinson +1.8
Jun 19 · A · 600 LV44 to 46 · 0% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Turek +1.5
Global Strategy GroupTurek +2
Jun 11 · B/C · 1,000 LV47 to 45 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Hinson +0.4
Public Policy PollingTie
Jun 04 · B+ · 557 RV46 to 46 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsor
Echelon InsightsTurek +1
Apr 09 · A- · 377 LV46 to 45 · 0% weight
adjusted Turek +2.5
GBAOHinson +4
Mar 16 · B/C · 1,200 LV43 to 47 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Hinson +6.0
Change ResearchHinson +3
Jan 11 · C+ · 1,108 LV41 to 44 · 0% weight
adjusted Hinson +1.5

Pollster	Grade	Date	Sample	Result	Weight
Trafalgar GroupRepublican sponsor	B	Oct 15	1,094LV	Hinson +1.744 to 46adjusted Turek +0.4	8%
YouGov	B	Oct 12	2,245LV	Turek +147 to 46adjusted Turek +0.4	19%
Marist University	A-	Oct 11	1,100LV	Turek +348 to 45adjusted Turek +1.1	16%
Emerson College	A	Oct 06	650LV	Hinson +1.645 to 47adjusted Turek +0.9	8%
CNN/SSRS	unrated	Oct 05	801LV	Hinson +243 to 45	7%
Suffolk University	A-	Oct 04	500LV	Turek +4.448 to 44adjusted Turek +4.5	7%
The New York Times/Siena University	A	Oct 01	606LV	Hinson +0.947 to 48adjusted Turek +0.5	7%
Quantus Insights	B/C	Sep 29	738LV	Hinson +1.947 to 49adjusted Turek +1.0	5%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research	A-	Sep 28	1,008LV	Turek +249 to 47adjusted Turek +1.7	6%
InsiderAdvantage	B+	Sep 23	1,200LV	Turek +1.747 to 46adjusted Turek +2.5	6%
Marist University	A-	Sep 20	1,050RV	Turek +850 to 42adjusted Turek +6.1	4%
Trafalgar GroupRepublican sponsor	B	Sep 18	1,089LV	Hinson +1.942 to 44adjusted Turek +0.2	1%
co/efficient	B	Sep 16	831LV	Hinson +442 to 46adjusted Hinson +1.0	3%
Cygnal PoliticalRepublican sponsor	A	Sep 11	500LV	Tie43 to 43adjusted Turek +3.3	1%
YouGov	B	Sep 08	2,127LV	Turek +245 to 43adjusted Turek +1.4	2%
Emerson College	A	Sep 01	750LV	Hinson +4.445 to 49adjusted Hinson +1.9	1%
Global Strategy GroupDemocratic sponsor	B/C	Aug 31	800LV	Turek +446 to 42adjusted Turek +1.6	<1%
Wedgewood Polls	unrated	Aug 29	600LV	Hinson +248 to 50adjusted Hinson +2.3	1%
Abacus Data	unrated	Aug 28	323LV	Turek +748 to 41adjusted Turek +6.7	<1%
Suffolk University	A-	Aug 23	500LV	Hinson +4.641 to 45adjusted Hinson +4.5	<1%
Emerson College	A	Aug 04	712LV	Hinson +2.545 to 48adjusted Even	0%
The New York Times/Siena University	A	Jun 27	600LV	Hinson +2.546 to 48adjusted Hinson +1.1	0%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research	A-	Jun 27	1,003RV	Turek +450 to 46adjusted Turek +3.7	0%
Cygnal PoliticalRepublican sponsor	A	Jun 19	600LV	Hinson +1.844 to 46adjusted Turek +1.5	0%
Global Strategy GroupDemocratic sponsor	B/C	Jun 11	1,000LV	Turek +247 to 45adjusted Hinson +0.4	0%
Public Policy PollingDemocratic sponsor	B+	Jun 04	557RV	Tie46 to 46	0%
Echelon Insights	A-	Apr 09	377LV	Turek +146 to 45adjusted Turek +2.5	0%
GBAODemocratic sponsor	B/C	Mar 16	1,200LV	Hinson +443 to 47adjusted Hinson +6.0	0%
Change Research	C+	Jan 11	1,108LV	Hinson +341 to 44adjusted Hinson +1.5	0%

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat: Joni Ernst (R) is not running again. Open seat.
On the ballot: Josh Turek (D) vs Ashley Hinson (R)
Last time: 2020: Joni Ernst (R) 51.8, Theresa Greenfield (D) 45.2. Ernst by 6.6.
President: 2024, statewide: Trump 55.7, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.2.
The raters: Cook Tossup · Sabato Tossup · Inside Elections Tilt R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

Democrat
Josh Turek
Turek on Ballotpedia ↗
Republican
Ashley Hinson
Hinson on Ballotpedia ↗

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