Florida special election

Angie Nixon (D)vsAshley Moody (R)

special election · Cook: Solid R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Solid R

8 in 10

Ashley Moody favored83%

Likely for Ashley Moody: a 83 percent chance of winning. Polls: Ashley Moody up 6.0.

Seat:Special election
Cook:Solid R
Sabato:Safe R
Inside Elections:Solid R
Odds:Moody 83%
Margin:Moody +5.4, give or take 4.5
Polls:17, averaging Moody +6.0
Latest poll:ActiVote, Oct 15, Moody +6.2
Generic ballot:D+8.2
T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Moody +5.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.5 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin: Moody +5.4
Uncertainty: 4.5 points, one standard deviation
Likely range: Moody +11.1 to Nixon +0.3 (80 percent)
Poll average: Moody +6.0 across 17 polls, worth 4.3 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point: Moody +4.2 before any polls, give or take 8.0

How polls have done here
9 Senate races here since 1998: the final polls missed by 3.6 points on average, on balance underrating Democrats. Last time, 2024, they were off by 8.0 toward Democrats.

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Nixon ahead is positive, Moody ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 17 public polls

ActiVoteMoody +6.2
Oct 15 · unrated · 400 LV47 to 53 · 11% weight
MDW CommunicationsMoody +5.2
Oct 10 · unrated · 2,351 LV42 to 48 · 20% weight
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion ResearchMoody +11
Oct 09 · B/C · 716 LV41 to 52 · 7% weight
adjusted Moody +9.0
St. Pete PollsMoody +1.9
Oct 07 · C+ · 836 LV45 to 47 · 7% weight
YouGovMoody +5
Oct 05 · B · 3,812 LV44 to 49 · 22% weight
adjusted Moody +5.6
Targoz Market ResearchMoody +10
Oct 04 · B- · 847 LV42 to 52 · 9% weight
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.Moody +10
Oct 01 · A- · 625 LV40 to 50 · 9% weight
adjusted Moody +9.6
Change ResearchMoody +1
Sep 27 · C+ · 1,063 LV47 to 48 · 4% weight
Partisan sponsoradjusted Nixon +0.5
InsiderAdvantageMoody +7.5
Sep 21 · B+ · 600 LV42 to 49 · 4% weight
adjusted Moody +6.7
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion ResearchMoody +11
Sep 21 · B/C · 830 LV40 to 51 · 2% weight
adjusted Moody +9.0
St. Pete PollsMoody +0.4
Sep 17 · C+ · 913 LV45 to 45 · 2% weight
Quantus InsightsMoody +7.4
Sep 10 · B/C · 733 LV43 to 50 · 2% weight
adjusted Moody +4.5
Change ResearchTie
Sep 09 · C+ · 1,107 LV47 to 47 · 1% weight
Partisan sponsoradjusted Nixon +1.5
University of North FloridaMoody +8.4
Jul 17 · A/B · 848 LV42 to 50 · 0% weight
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion ResearchMoody +13
Apr 13 · B/C · 414 LV38 to 51 · 0% weight
adjusted Moody +11.0
Emerson CollegeMoody +11
Mar 31 · A · 1,125 LV36 to 47 · 0% weight
adjusted Moody +8.5
University of North FloridaMoody +8
Mar 02 · A/B · 768 LV38 to 46 · 0% weight

Pollster	Grade	Date	Sample	Result	Weight
ActiVote	unrated	Oct 15	400LV	Moody +6.247 to 53	11%
MDW Communications	unrated	Oct 10	2,351LV	Moody +5.242 to 48	20%
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research	B/C	Oct 09	716LV	Moody +1141 to 52adjusted Moody +9.0	7%
St. Pete Polls	C+	Oct 07	836LV	Moody +1.945 to 47	7%
YouGov	B	Oct 05	3,812LV	Moody +544 to 49adjusted Moody +5.6	22%
Targoz Market Research	B-	Oct 04	847LV	Moody +1042 to 52	9%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.	A-	Oct 01	625LV	Moody +1040 to 50adjusted Moody +9.6	9%
Change ResearchPartisan sponsor	C+	Sep 27	1,063LV	Moody +147 to 48adjusted Nixon +0.5	4%
InsiderAdvantage	B+	Sep 21	600LV	Moody +7.542 to 49adjusted Moody +6.7	4%
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research	B/C	Sep 21	830LV	Moody +1140 to 51adjusted Moody +9.0	2%
St. Pete Polls	C+	Sep 17	913LV	Moody +0.445 to 45	2%
Quantus Insights	B/C	Sep 10	733LV	Moody +7.443 to 50adjusted Moody +4.5	2%
Change ResearchPartisan sponsor	C+	Sep 09	1,107LV	Tie47 to 47adjusted Nixon +1.5	1%
University of North Florida	A/B	Jul 17	848LV	Moody +8.442 to 50	0%
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research	B/C	Apr 13	414LV	Moody +1338 to 51adjusted Moody +11.0	0%
Emerson College	A	Mar 31	1,125LV	Moody +1136 to 47adjusted Moody +8.5	0%
University of North Florida	A/B	Mar 02	768LV	Moody +838 to 46	0%

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat: Ashley Moody (R) was appointed to the seat and is running to keep it.
On the ballot: Angie Nixon (D) vs Ashley Moody (R, incumbent)
President: 2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 43.0. Trump by 13.1.
The raters: Cook Solid R · Sabato Safe R · Inside Elections Solid R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

Democrat
Angie Nixon
Nixon on Ballotpedia ↗
Republican
Ashley Moody
Moody on Ballotpedia ↗

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