Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the map

● Senate // Race file

[ Senate // Kansas ]

Kansas

Adam Hamilton (D)vsRoger Marshall (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Tossup · Sabato: Tossup · Inside Elections: Likely R

6 in 10

Roger Marshall favored64%

A slight edge for Roger Marshall: a 64 percent chance of winning. Polls: Adam Hamilton up 1.5.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Tossup
  • Sabato:Tossup
  • Inside Elections:Likely R
  • Odds:Marshall 64%
  • Margin:Marshall +2.0, give or take 4.3
  • Polls:14, averaging Hamilton +1.5
  • Latest poll:InsiderAdvantage, Oct 14, Marshall +1.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Marshall +2.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.3 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Marshall +2.0
Uncertainty
4.3 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Marshall +7.5 to Hamilton +3.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
Hamilton +1.5 across 14 polls, worth 3.2 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Marshall +7.9 before any polls, give or take 7.0

How polls have done here
7 Senate races here since 1998: the final polls missed by 3.5 points on average, on balance underrating Democrats. Last time, 2022, they were off by 1.4 toward Democrats.

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Hamilton ahead is positive, Marshall ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 14 public polls

  • InsiderAdvantageMarshall +1
    Oct 14 · B+ · 1,200 LV47 to 48 · 24% weight
    adjusted Marshall +0.2
  • InsiderAdvantageHamilton +0.8
    Oct 10 · B+ · 1,200 LV48 to 47 · 18% weight
    adjusted Hamilton +1.6
  • GBAOHamilton +5
    Oct 04 · B/C · 600 LV46 to 41 · 4% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Hamilton +3.0
  • YouGovHamilton +3
    Oct 04 · B · 2,253 LV48 to 45 · 22% weight
    adjusted Hamilton +2.4
  • Trafalgar GroupHamilton +0.9
    Oct 01 · B · 1,095 LV44 to 44 · 6% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Hamilton +3.0
  • The New York Times/Siena UniversityHamilton +0.1
    Sep 30 · A · 605 LV45 to 45 · 13% weight
    adjusted Hamilton +1.5
  • Wedgewood PollsHamilton +2
    Sep 24 · unrated · 500 LV50 to 48 · 4% weight
    adjusted Hamilton +1.7
  • Global Strategy GroupHamilton +4
    Sep 16 · B/C · 800 LV47 to 43 · 1% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Hamilton +1.6
  • Emerson CollegeHamilton +1.5
    Sep 16 · A · 750 LV45 to 43 · 5% weight
    adjusted Hamilton +3.9
  • co/efficientMarshall +5
    Sep 10 · B · 915 LV44 to 49 · 3% weight
    adjusted Marshall +2.0
  • Global Strategy GroupHamilton +1
    Aug 16 · B/C · 800 LV44 to 43 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Marshall +1.4
  • Public Policy PollingMarshall +1
    Aug 08 · B+45 to 46 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsor
  • GBAOMarshall +4
    Jul 13 · B/C · 600 LV43 to 47 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Marshall +6.0
  • Tavern ResearchHamilton +2
    Jan 28 · unrated · 1,013 LV51 to 49 · 0% weight
    adjusted Hamilton +1.8

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Roger Marshall (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Adam Hamilton (D) vs Roger Marshall (R, incumbent)
Last time
2020: Roger Marshall (R) 53.2, Barbara Bollier (D) 41.8. Marshall by 11.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 57.2, Harris 41.0. Trump by 16.1.
The raters
Cook Tossup · Sabato Tossup · Inside Elections Likely R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the map