T-minus 16 days
● Senate // Race file
[ Senate // Maine ]
Maine
Troy Jackson (D)vsSusan Collins (R)
incumbent running · Cook: Tossup · Sabato: Tossup · Inside Elections: Tossup
7 in 10
Troy Jackson favored72%
Likely for Troy Jackson: a 72 percent chance of winning. Polls: Troy Jackson up 2.3.
- Seat:Incumbent running
- Cook:Tossup
- Sabato:Tossup
- Inside Elections:Tossup
- Odds:Jackson 72%
- Margin:Jackson +3.3, give or take 4.3
- Polls:23, averaging Jackson +2.3
- Latest poll:InsiderAdvantage, Oct 14, Jackson +2.0
- Generic ballot:D+8.2
- T-minus:16 days
▸ Margin // Uncertainty
Jackson +3.3
The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.3 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.
- Projected margin
- Jackson +3.3
- Uncertainty
- 4.3 points, one standard deviation
- Likely range
- Collins +2.2 to Jackson +8.8 (80 percent)
- Poll average
- Jackson +2.3 across 23 polls, worth 4.7 fresh polls after weighting
- Starting point
- Jackson +5.1 before any polls, give or take 7.0
How polls have done here
6 Senate races here since 2000: the final polls missed by 7.0 points on average, on balance underrating Democrats. Last time, 2020, they were off by 12.0 toward Democrats.
Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Jackson ahead is positive, Collins ahead is negative.
▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots
Reading the history
▸ Polls // 23 public polls
- InsiderAdvantageJackson +2Oct 14 · B+ · 1,200 LV49 to 47 · 16% weightadjusted Jackson +2.8
- Suffolk UniversityJackson +2Oct 11 · A- · 500 LV49 to 47 · 14% weightadjusted Jackson +2.1
- Oct 05 · B/C · 800 LV50 to 46 · 8% weight
- Marist UniversityJackson +4Oct 04 · A- · 1,505 RV51 to 47 · 15% weightadjusted Jackson +2.1
- Trafalgar GroupJackson +0.3Oct 01 · B · 1,091 LV46 to 46 · 4% weightRepublican sponsoradjusted Jackson +2.4
- Wedgewood PollsJackson +4Oct 01 · unrated · 400 LV52 to 48 · 3% weightadjusted Jackson +3.7
- YouGovTieOct 01 · B · 1,136 LV50 to 50 · 6% weightadjusted Collins +0.6
- co/efficientCollins +2Sep 30 · B · 1,240 LV46 to 48 · 8% weightadjusted Jackson +1.0
- Maine People's Resource CenterJackson +2.8Sep 29 · B/C · 684 LV49 to 47 · 5% weight
- InsiderAdvantageJackson +0.8Sep 23 · B+ · 1,200 LV46 to 46 · 4% weightadjusted Jackson +1.6
- Fabrizio Ward/Impact ResearchJackson +3Sep 22 · B/C · 982 LV50 to 47 · 4% weightadjusted Jackson +2.9
- The New York Times/Siena UniversityCollins +2.7Sep 22 · A · 619 LV46 to 49 · 5% weightadjusted Collins +1.4
- University of New HampshireJackson +4Sep 21 · B- · 1,301 LV51 to 47 · 3% weightadjusted Jackson +7.0
- Quantus InsightsCollins +0.2Sep 15 · B/C · 621 LV47 to 48 · 2% weightadjusted Jackson +2.7
- Sep 14 · A- · 650 LV48 to 43 · 2% weight
- YouGovJackson +4Sep 08 · B · 1,335 LV48 to 44 · 1% weightadjusted Jackson +3.4
- CNN/SSRSJackson +3Sep 06 · unrated · 880 LV48 to 45 · 1% weight
- Abacus DataJackson +8Aug 28 · unrated · 327 LV50 to 42 · <1% weightadjusted Jackson +7.7
- Beacon Research/Shaw & Company ResearchJackson +2Aug 10 · A- · 1,000 RV48 to 46 · <1% weightadjusted Jackson +1.7
- Hart Research AssociatesJackson +4Aug 01 · A- · 802 LV49 to 45 · 0% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Jackson +2.4
- University of New HampshireJackson +3Jul 20 · B- · 1,178 LV49 to 46 · 0% weightadjusted Jackson +6.0
- Public Policy PollingJackson +5Jul 07 · B+ · 785 RV49 to 44 · 0% weightDemocratic sponsor
- Wedgewood PollsJackson +5Jul 06 · unrated · 405 LV48 to 43 · 0% weightadjusted Jackson +4.7
| Pollster | Grade | Date | Sample | Result | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage | B+ | Oct 14 | 1,200LV | Jackson +249 to 47adjusted Jackson +2.8 | 16% |
| Suffolk University | A- | Oct 11 | 500LV | Jackson +249 to 47adjusted Jackson +2.1 | 14% |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | B/C | Oct 05 | 800LV | Jackson +450 to 46 | 8% |
| Marist University | A- | Oct 04 | 1,505RV | Jackson +451 to 47adjusted Jackson +2.1 | 15% |
| Trafalgar GroupRepublican sponsor | B | Oct 01 | 1,091LV | Jackson +0.346 to 46adjusted Jackson +2.4 | 4% |
| Wedgewood Polls | unrated | Oct 01 | 400LV | Jackson +452 to 48adjusted Jackson +3.7 | 3% |
| YouGov | B | Oct 01 | 1,136LV | Tie50 to 50adjusted Collins +0.6 | 6% |
| co/efficient | B | Sep 30 | 1,240LV | Collins +246 to 48adjusted Jackson +1.0 | 8% |
| Maine People's Resource Center | B/C | Sep 29 | 684LV | Jackson +2.849 to 47 | 5% |
| InsiderAdvantage | B+ | Sep 23 | 1,200LV | Jackson +0.846 to 46adjusted Jackson +1.6 | 4% |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | B/C | Sep 22 | 982LV | Jackson +350 to 47adjusted Jackson +2.9 | 4% |
| The New York Times/Siena University | A | Sep 22 | 619LV | Collins +2.746 to 49adjusted Collins +1.4 | 5% |
| University of New Hampshire | B- | Sep 21 | 1,301LV | Jackson +451 to 47adjusted Jackson +7.0 | 3% |
| Quantus Insights | B/C | Sep 15 | 621LV | Collins +0.247 to 48adjusted Jackson +2.7 | 2% |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov | A- | Sep 14 | 650LV | Jackson +548 to 43 | 2% |
| YouGov | B | Sep 08 | 1,335LV | Jackson +448 to 44adjusted Jackson +3.4 | 1% |
| CNN/SSRS | unrated | Sep 06 | 880LV | Jackson +348 to 45 | 1% |
| Abacus Data | unrated | Aug 28 | 327LV | Jackson +850 to 42adjusted Jackson +7.7 | <1% |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | A- | Aug 10 | 1,000RV | Jackson +248 to 46adjusted Jackson +1.7 | <1% |
| Hart Research AssociatesDemocratic sponsor | A- | Aug 01 | 802LV | Jackson +449 to 45adjusted Jackson +2.4 | 0% |
| University of New Hampshire | B- | Jul 20 | 1,178LV | Jackson +349 to 46adjusted Jackson +6.0 | 0% |
| Public Policy PollingDemocratic sponsor | B+ | Jul 07 | 785RV | Jackson +549 to 44 | 0% |
| Wedgewood Polls | unrated | Jul 06 | 405LV | Jackson +548 to 43adjusted Jackson +4.7 | 0% |
Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.
▸ Race file // The facts
- The seat
- Susan Collins (R), running for another term.
- On the ballot
- Troy Jackson (D) vs Susan Collins (R, incumbent)
- Last time
- 2020: Susan Collins (R) 51.0, Sara Gideon (D) 42.4. Collins by 8.6.
- President
- 2024, statewide: Trump 45.5, Harris 52.4. Harris by 6.9.
- The raters
- Cook Tossup · Sabato Tossup · Inside Elections Tossup
Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗
▸ Candidates // Read more
Democrat
Troy Jackson
Jackson on Ballotpedia ↗Republican
Susan Collins
Collins on Ballotpedia ↗