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● Senate // Race file

[ Senate // Minnesota ]

Minnesota

Peggy Flanagan (D)vsMichele Tafoya (R)

open seat · Cook: Likely D · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Lean D

9 in 10

Peggy Flanagan favored88%

Very likely for Peggy Flanagan: a 88 percent chance of winning. Polls: Peggy Flanagan up 3.9.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Cook:Likely D
  • Sabato:Lean D
  • Inside Elections:Lean D
  • Odds:Flanagan 88%
  • Margin:Flanagan +6.8, give or take 4.5
  • Polls:15, averaging Flanagan +3.9
  • Latest poll:Trafalgar Group, Oct 15, Flanagan +3.5
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Flanagan +6.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.5 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Flanagan +6.8
Uncertainty
4.5 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Flanagan +1.1 to Flanagan +12.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
Flanagan +3.9 across 15 polls, worth 3.7 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Flanagan +13.1 before any polls, give or take 8.0

How polls have done here
10 Senate races here since 2000: the final polls missed by 2.7 points on average, with no steady lean. Last time, 2024, they were off by 2.5 toward Republicans.

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Flanagan ahead is positive, Tafoya ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 15 public polls

  • Trafalgar GroupFlanagan +3.5
    Oct 15 · B · 1,079 LV48 to 45 · 16% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Flanagan +5.6
  • SurveyUSAFlanagan +3
    Oct 12 · A · 718 LV45 to 42 · 18% weight
  • Morning ConsultFlanagan +4
    Oct 07 · C+ · 1,000 RV45 to 41 · 14% weight
  • Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.Flanagan +4
    Oct 07 · A- · 800 LV47 to 43 · 21% weight
    adjusted Flanagan +4.4
  • GQRFlanagan +8
    Oct 04 · A- · 800 LV50 to 42 · 8% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Flanagan +5.0
  • Big Data PollFlanagan +2.2
    Sep 30 · banned · 622 LV46 to 44 · 0% weight
    adjusted Flanagan +2.0
  • InsiderAdvantageFlanagan +1
    Sep 29 · B+ · 1,200 LV46 to 45 · 12% weight
    adjusted Flanagan +1.8
  • co/efficientFlanagan +1
    Sep 15 · B · 833 LV43 to 42 · 4% weight
    adjusted Flanagan +4.0
  • SurveyUSATie
    Sep 14 · A · 654 LV42 to 42 · 3% weight
  • Quantus InsightsFlanagan +3.5
    Sep 10 · B/C · 720 LV49 to 45 · 2% weight
    adjusted Flanagan +6.4
  • TIPP InsightsFlanagan +2.1
    Sep 02 · A · 1,192 LV44 to 42 · 1% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Flanagan +3.4
  • SurveyUSAFlanagan +5
    Aug 17 · A · 661 LV46 to 41 · <1% weight
  • Impact ResearchFlanagan +7
    May 28 · B/C · 808 LV51 to 44 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Flanagan +5.1
  • Emerson CollegeFlanagan +6.5
    Feb 08 · A · 1,000 LV47 to 41 · 0% weight
    adjusted Flanagan +9.0
  • Impact ResearchFlanagan +3
    Jul 11 · B/C · 604 LV48 to 45 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Flanagan +1.1

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Tina Smith (D) is not running again. Open seat.
On the ballot
Peggy Flanagan (D) vs Michele Tafoya (R)
Last time
2020: Tina Smith (D) 48.8, Jason Lewis (R) 43.5. Smith by 5.3.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 46.7, Harris 50.9. Harris by 4.2.
The raters
Cook Likely D · Sabato Lean D · Inside Elections Lean D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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