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T-minus 16 days

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● Senate // Race file

[ Senate // Mississippi ]

Mississippi

Scott Colom (D)vsCindy Hyde-Smith (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Solid R · Sabato: Likely R · Inside Elections: Solid R

9 in 10

Cindy Hyde-Smith favored89%

Very likely for Cindy Hyde-Smith: a 89 percent chance of winning. Polls: Cindy Hyde-Smith up 4.4.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Solid R
  • Sabato:Likely R
  • Inside Elections:Solid R
  • Odds:Hyde-Smith 89%
  • Margin:Hyde-Smith +7.6, give or take 5.1
  • Polls:3, averaging Hyde-Smith +4.4
  • Latest poll:Wedgewood Polls, Oct 14, Hyde-Smith +4.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Hyde-Smith +7.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.1 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Hyde-Smith +7.6
Uncertainty
5.1 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Hyde-Smith +14.1 to Hyde-Smith +1.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
Hyde-Smith +4.4 across 3 polls, worth 0.8 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Hyde-Smith +10.5 before any polls, give or take 7.0

How polls have done here
7 Senate races here since 2008: the final polls missed by 4.4 points on average, on balance underrating Democrats. Last time, 2020, they were off by 5.0 toward Democrats.

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Colom ahead is positive, Hyde-Smith ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 3 public polls

  • Wedgewood PollsHyde-Smith +4
    Oct 14 · unrated · 511 LV48 to 52 · 100% weight
    adjusted Hyde-Smith +4.3
  • Data for ProgressHyde-Smith +6
    Aug 15 · C+ · 1,018 LV38 to 44 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Hyde-Smith +7.4
  • Impact ResearchHyde-Smith +3
    Apr 12 · B/C · 500 LV39 to 42 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Hyde-Smith +4.9

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Scott Colom (D) vs Cindy Hyde-Smith (R, incumbent)
Last time
2020: Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 54.1, Mike Espy (D) 44.1. Hyde-Smith by 10.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 60.9, Harris 38.0. Trump by 22.9.
The raters
Cook Solid R · Sabato Likely R · Inside Elections Solid R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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