North Carolina

Roy Cooper (D)vsMichael Whatley (R)

open seat · Cook: Likely D · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Lean D

9 in 10

Roy Cooper favored95%

Very likely for Roy Cooper: a 95 percent chance of winning. Polls: Roy Cooper up 10.9.

Seat:Open seat
Cook:Likely D
Sabato:Lean D
Inside Elections:Lean D
Odds:Cooper 95%
Margin:Cooper +9.3, give or take 4.5
Polls:43, averaging Cooper +10.9
Latest poll:SurveyUSA, Oct 11, Cooper +14.0
Generic ballot:D+8.2
T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Cooper +9.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.5 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin: Cooper +9.3
Uncertainty: 4.5 points, one standard deviation
Likely range: Cooper +3.6 to Cooper +15.0 (80 percent)
Poll average: Cooper +10.9 across 43 polls, worth 3.5 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point: Cooper +5.7 before any polls, give or take 8.0

How polls have done here
9 Senate races here since 1998: the final polls missed by 3.0 points on average, on balance underrating Democrats. Last time, 2022, they were off by 1.4 toward Republicans.

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Cooper ahead is positive, Whatley ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 43 public polls

SurveyUSACooper +14
Oct 11 · A · 643 LV54 to 40 · 37% weight
Trafalgar GroupCooper +7.9
Oct 10 · B · 1,091 LV49 to 41 · 11% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Cooper +10.0
Change ResearchCooper +10
Oct 07 · C+ · 829 LV50 to 40 · 3% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Cooper +8.5
East Carolina University Center for Survey ResearchCooper +7
Oct 03 · B/C · 810 LV50 to 43 · 12% weight
Big Data PollCooper +12.3
Sep 29 · banned · 642 LV51 to 39 · 0% weight
adjusted Cooper +12.1
Quantus InsightsCooper +5.1
Sep 22 · B/C · 686 LV48 to 43 · 4% weight
adjusted Cooper +8.0
Opinion DiagnosticsCooper +8.2
Sep 20 · unrated · 857 LV52 to 44 · 3% weight
adjusted Cooper +9.0
Fabrizio Ward/Impact ResearchCooper +11
Sep 20 · B/C · 1,115 LV53 to 42 · 7% weight
adjusted Cooper +10.9
YouGovCooper +13
Sep 18 · B · 3,511 LV54 to 41 · 4% weight
adjusted Cooper +12.4
InsiderAdvantageCooper +5.9
Sep 17 · B+ · 1,200 LV48 to 43 · 7% weight
adjusted Cooper +6.7
High Point UniversityCooper +8
Sep 16 · B/C · 706 LV50 to 42 · 2% weight
adjusted Cooper +9.4
YouGovCooper +11
Sep 15 · B · 885 LV48 to 37 · 2% weight
adjusted Cooper +10.4
Harper PollingCooper +15.1
Sep 15 · B/C · 608 LV49 to 34 · 1% weight
adjusted Cooper +15.7
Trafalgar GroupCooper +5.9
Sep 10 · B · 1,084 LV48 to 42 · 1% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Cooper +8.0
East Carolina University Center for Survey ResearchCooper +8.1
Sep 03 · B/C · 675 LV52 to 44 · 1% weight
YouGovCooper +11
Aug 31 · B · 565 LV49 to 38 · <1% weight
adjusted Cooper +10.4
High Point UniversityCooper +5
Aug 12 · B/C · 660 LV50 to 45 · 0% weight
adjusted Cooper +6.4
Harper PollingCooper +12.5
Aug 10 · B/C · 600 LV52 to 39 · 0% weight
adjusted Cooper +13.1
Change ResearchCooper +7.1
Aug 06 · C+ · 915 LV50 to 43 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Cooper +5.6
Change ResearchCooper +9
Aug 01 · C+ · 967 RV50 to 41 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Cooper +7.5
YouGovCooper +11
Jul 31 · B · 466 LV53 to 42 · 0% weight
adjusted Cooper +10.4
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company ResearchCooper +9
Jul 27 · A- · 1,005 RV53 to 44 · 0% weight
adjusted Cooper +8.7
Public Policy PollingCooper +4
Jul 11 · B+ · 759 RV48 to 44 · 0% weight
adjusted Cooper +7.0
The New York Times/Siena UniversityCooper +6.8
Jun 27 · A · 601 LV50 to 43 · 0% weight
adjusted Cooper +8.2
YouGovCooper +13.7
Jun 10 · B · 905 LV48 to 34 · 0% weight
adjusted Cooper +13.1
Harper PollingCooper +11.1
May 11 · B/C · 600 LV50 to 39 · 0% weight
adjusted Cooper +11.7
Change ResearchCooper +6.9
May 08 · C+ · 957 LV49 to 42 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Cooper +5.4
Opinion DiagnosticsCooper +9
Apr 24 · unrated · 830 RV50 to 41 · 0% weight
adjusted Cooper +9.8
Opinion DiagnosticsCooper +9
Apr 24 · unrated · 830 RV50 to 41 · 0% weight
adjusted Cooper +9.8
High Point UniversityCooper +8
Apr 06 · B/C · 703 LV50 to 42 · 0% weight
adjusted Cooper +9.4
Quantus InsightsCooper +4.8
Apr 01 · B/C · 987 LV49 to 44 · 0% weight
adjusted Cooper +7.7
Harper PollingCooper +7.8
Mar 23 · B/C · 600 LV49 to 41 · 0% weight
adjusted Cooper +8.4
YouGovCooper +14
Mar 18 · B · 872 LV48 to 34 · 0% weight
adjusted Cooper +13.4
Public Policy PollingCooper +3
Mar 14 · B+ · 556 RV47 to 44 · 0% weight
adjusted Cooper +6.0
Change ResearchCooper +10
Feb 04 · C+ · 1,069 RV50 to 40 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Cooper +8.5
TIPP InsightsCooper +24.2
Jan 15 · A · 1,512 RV48 to 24 · 0% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Cooper +25.5
Change ResearchCooper +5
Jan 07 · C+ · 1,105 LV47 to 42 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Cooper +3.5
Harper PollingCooper +8.7
Nov 10 · B/C · 600 LV47 to 39 · 0% weight
adjusted Cooper +9.3
Harper PollingCooper +4.2
Sep 15 · B/C · 600 LV46 to 42 · 0% weight
adjusted Cooper +4.8
Change ResearchCooper +7
Sep 08 · C+ · 855 LV48 to 41 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Cooper +5.5
Harper PollingCooper +8.2
Aug 12 · B/C · 600 LV47 to 39 · 0% weight
adjusted Cooper +8.8
Emerson CollegeCooper +5.3
Jul 30 · A · 1,000 RV47 to 41 · 0% weight
adjusted Cooper +7.8
Victory InsightsCooper +0.9
Jul 30 · B/C · 600 LV44 to 44 · 0% weight

Pollster	Grade	Date	Sample	Result	Weight
SurveyUSA	A	Oct 11	643LV	Cooper +1454 to 40	37%
Trafalgar GroupRepublican sponsor	B	Oct 10	1,091LV	Cooper +7.949 to 41adjusted Cooper +10.0	11%
Change ResearchDemocratic sponsor	C+	Oct 07	829LV	Cooper +1050 to 40adjusted Cooper +8.5	3%
East Carolina University Center for Survey Research	B/C	Oct 03	810LV	Cooper +750 to 43	12%
Big Data Poll	banned	Sep 29	642LV	Cooper +12.351 to 39adjusted Cooper +12.1	0%
Quantus Insights	B/C	Sep 22	686LV	Cooper +5.148 to 43adjusted Cooper +8.0	4%
Opinion Diagnostics	unrated	Sep 20	857LV	Cooper +8.252 to 44adjusted Cooper +9.0	3%
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research	B/C	Sep 20	1,115LV	Cooper +1153 to 42adjusted Cooper +10.9	7%
YouGov	B	Sep 18	3,511LV	Cooper +1354 to 41adjusted Cooper +12.4	4%
InsiderAdvantage	B+	Sep 17	1,200LV	Cooper +5.948 to 43adjusted Cooper +6.7	7%
High Point University	B/C	Sep 16	706LV	Cooper +850 to 42adjusted Cooper +9.4	2%
YouGov	B	Sep 15	885LV	Cooper +1148 to 37adjusted Cooper +10.4	2%
Harper Polling	B/C	Sep 15	608LV	Cooper +15.149 to 34adjusted Cooper +15.7	1%
Trafalgar GroupRepublican sponsor	B	Sep 10	1,084LV	Cooper +5.948 to 42adjusted Cooper +8.0	1%
East Carolina University Center for Survey Research	B/C	Sep 03	675LV	Cooper +8.152 to 44	1%
YouGov	B	Aug 31	565LV	Cooper +1149 to 38adjusted Cooper +10.4	<1%
High Point University	B/C	Aug 12	660LV	Cooper +550 to 45adjusted Cooper +6.4	0%
Harper Polling	B/C	Aug 10	600LV	Cooper +12.552 to 39adjusted Cooper +13.1	0%
Change ResearchDemocratic sponsor	C+	Aug 06	915LV	Cooper +7.150 to 43adjusted Cooper +5.6	0%
Change ResearchDemocratic sponsor	C+	Aug 01	967RV	Cooper +950 to 41adjusted Cooper +7.5	0%
YouGov	B	Jul 31	466LV	Cooper +1153 to 42adjusted Cooper +10.4	0%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research	A-	Jul 27	1,005RV	Cooper +953 to 44adjusted Cooper +8.7	0%
Public Policy Polling	B+	Jul 11	759RV	Cooper +448 to 44adjusted Cooper +7.0	0%
The New York Times/Siena University	A	Jun 27	601LV	Cooper +6.850 to 43adjusted Cooper +8.2	0%
YouGov	B	Jun 10	905LV	Cooper +13.748 to 34adjusted Cooper +13.1	0%
Harper Polling	B/C	May 11	600LV	Cooper +11.150 to 39adjusted Cooper +11.7	0%
Change ResearchDemocratic sponsor	C+	May 08	957LV	Cooper +6.949 to 42adjusted Cooper +5.4	0%
Opinion Diagnostics	unrated	Apr 24	830RV	Cooper +950 to 41adjusted Cooper +9.8	0%
Opinion Diagnostics	unrated	Apr 24	830RV	Cooper +950 to 41adjusted Cooper +9.8	0%
High Point University	B/C	Apr 06	703LV	Cooper +850 to 42adjusted Cooper +9.4	0%
Quantus Insights	B/C	Apr 01	987LV	Cooper +4.849 to 44adjusted Cooper +7.7	0%
Harper Polling	B/C	Mar 23	600LV	Cooper +7.849 to 41adjusted Cooper +8.4	0%
YouGov	B	Mar 18	872LV	Cooper +1448 to 34adjusted Cooper +13.4	0%
Public Policy Polling	B+	Mar 14	556RV	Cooper +347 to 44adjusted Cooper +6.0	0%
Change ResearchDemocratic sponsor	C+	Feb 04	1,069RV	Cooper +1050 to 40adjusted Cooper +8.5	0%
TIPP InsightsRepublican sponsor	A	Jan 15	1,512RV	Cooper +24.248 to 24adjusted Cooper +25.5	0%
Change ResearchDemocratic sponsor	C+	Jan 07	1,105LV	Cooper +547 to 42adjusted Cooper +3.5	0%
Harper Polling	B/C	Nov 10	600LV	Cooper +8.747 to 39adjusted Cooper +9.3	0%
Harper Polling	B/C	Sep 15	600LV	Cooper +4.246 to 42adjusted Cooper +4.8	0%
Change ResearchDemocratic sponsor	C+	Sep 08	855LV	Cooper +748 to 41adjusted Cooper +5.5	0%
Harper Polling	B/C	Aug 12	600LV	Cooper +8.247 to 39adjusted Cooper +8.8	0%
Emerson College	A	Jul 30	1,000RV	Cooper +5.347 to 41adjusted Cooper +7.8	0%
Victory Insights	B/C	Jul 30	600LV	Cooper +0.944 to 44	0%

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat: Thom Tillis (R) is not running again. Open seat.
On the ballot: Roy Cooper (D) vs Michael Whatley (R)
Last time: 2020: Thom Tillis (R) 48.7, Cal Cunningham (D) 46.9. Tillis by 1.8.
President: 2024, statewide: Trump 50.9, Harris 47.6. Trump by 3.2.
The raters: Cook Likely D · Sabato Lean D · Inside Elections Lean D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

Democrat
Roy Cooper
Cooper on Ballotpedia ↗
Republican
Michael Whatley
Whatley on Ballotpedia ↗

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