T-minus 16 days
● Senate // Race file
[ Senate // Ohio (special) ]
Ohio special election
Sherrod Brown (D)vsJon Husted (R)
special election · Cook: Tossup · Sabato: Tossup · Inside Elections: Tossup
7 in 10
Sherrod Brown favored68%
Likely for Sherrod Brown: a 68 percent chance of winning. Polls: Sherrod Brown up 4.1.
- Seat:Special election
- Cook:Tossup
- Sabato:Tossup
- Inside Elections:Tossup
- Odds:Brown 68%
- Margin:Brown +2.7, give or take 4.5
- Polls:31, averaging Brown +4.1
- Latest poll:Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov, Oct 09, Brown +6.0
- Generic ballot:D+8.2
- T-minus:16 days
▸ Margin // Uncertainty
Brown +2.7
The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.5 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.
- Projected margin
- Brown +2.7
- Uncertainty
- 4.5 points, one standard deviation
- Likely range
- Husted +3.0 to Brown +8.4 (80 percent)
- Poll average
- Brown +4.1 across 31 polls, worth 3.4 fresh polls after weighting
- Starting point
- Husted +0.5 before any polls, give or take 8.0
How polls have done here
10 Senate races here since 1998: the final polls missed by 2.2 points on average, with no steady lean. Last time, 2024, they were off by 2.1 toward Democrats.
Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Brown ahead is positive, Husted ahead is negative.
▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots
Reading the history
▸ Polls // 31 public polls
- Oct 09 · unrated · 1,000 LV48 to 42 · 7% weightadjusted Brown +8.3
- co/efficientHusted +1Oct 06 · B · 925 LV43 to 44 · 16% weightadjusted Brown +2.0
- CNN/SSRSBrown +6Oct 05 · unrated · 760 LV49 to 43 · 10% weight
- The New York Times/Siena UniversityBrown +2.7Oct 01 · A · 616 LV49 to 46 · 10% weightadjusted Brown +4.1
- YouGovBrown +4Sep 30 · B · 3,777 LV49 to 45 · 14% weightadjusted Brown +3.4
- InsiderAdvantageBrown +1.3Sep 29 · B+ · 1,200 LV44 to 43 · 9% weightadjusted Brown +2.1
- Marist UniversityBrown +8Sep 27 · A- · 1,298 RV51 to 43 · 13% weightadjusted Brown +6.1
- Big Data PollBrown +3.7Sep 27 · banned · 680 LV46 to 43 · 0% weightadjusted Brown +3.5
- Suffolk UniversityBrown +2.6Sep 27 · A- · 500 LV47 to 44 · 9% weightadjusted Brown +2.7
- Quantus InsightsBrown +0.5Sep 23 · B/C · 695 LV47 to 47 · 4% weightadjusted Brown +3.4
- Trafalgar GroupBrown +3.9Sep 16 · B · 1,085 LV45 to 42 · 2% weightRepublican sponsoradjusted Brown +6.0
- YouGovBrown +3Sep 10 · B · 1,000 LV48 to 45 · 2% weightadjusted Brown +2.4
- InsiderAdvantageBrown +5.4Sep 09 · B+ · 1,200 LV47 to 42 · 2% weightadjusted Brown +6.2
- Abacus DataBrown +5Aug 28 · unrated · 306 LV46 to 41 · <1% weightadjusted Brown +4.7
- Wedgewood PollsBrown +4Aug 13 · unrated · 800 LV48 to 44 · <1% weightadjusted Brown +3.7
- Aug 10 · A- · 1,008 RV53 to 45 · <1% weightadjusted Brown +7.7
- Tulchin ResearchBrown +4Aug 04 · B/C · 600 LV47 to 43 · 0% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Brown +1.8
- The New York Times/Siena UniversityHusted +2.8Jun 28 · A · 601 LV47 to 50 · 0% weightadjusted Husted +1.4
- Fabrizio Ward/Impact ResearchBrown +3Jun 16 · B/C · 800 LV48 to 45 · 0% weightadjusted Brown +2.9
- Tulchin ResearchBrown +4Jun 04 · B/C · 600 LV46 to 42 · 0% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Brown +1.8
- Jun 01 · A- · 1,015 RV53 to 45 · 0% weightadjusted Brown +7.7
- Apr 14 · unrated · 1,000 RV47 to 50 · 0% weightadjusted Husted +0.7
- Echelon InsightsHusted +6Apr 09 · A- · 413 LV45 to 51 · 0% weightadjusted Husted +4.5
- Quantus InsightsHusted +1.1Mar 14 · B/C · 784 LV44 to 46 · 0% weightadjusted Brown +1.8
- OnMessage Inc.Brown +2Mar 08 · A · 600 LV47 to 45 · 0% weight
- EMC ResearchBrown +4Feb 22 · B/C · 1,343 LV51 to 47 · 0% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Brown +1.0
- Emerson CollegeHusted +2.5Dec 08 · A · 850 RV46 to 49 · 0% weightadjusted Even
- Oct 14 · unrated · 800 RV49 to 48 · 0% weightadjusted Brown +3.3
- Emerson CollegeHusted +5.8Aug 19 · A · 1,000 RV44 to 50 · 0% weightadjusted Husted +3.3
- Apr 24 · unrated · 800 RV46 to 49 · 0% weightadjusted Husted +0.7
- Feb 21 · unrated · 800 RV41 to 47 · 0% weightadjusted Husted +3.7
| Pollster | Grade | Date | Sample | Result | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov | unrated | Oct 09 | 1,000LV | Brown +648 to 42adjusted Brown +8.3 | 7% |
| co/efficient | B | Oct 06 | 925LV | Husted +143 to 44adjusted Brown +2.0 | 16% |
| CNN/SSRS | unrated | Oct 05 | 760LV | Brown +649 to 43 | 10% |
| The New York Times/Siena University | A | Oct 01 | 616LV | Brown +2.749 to 46adjusted Brown +4.1 | 10% |
| YouGov | B | Sep 30 | 3,777LV | Brown +449 to 45adjusted Brown +3.4 | 14% |
| InsiderAdvantage | B+ | Sep 29 | 1,200LV | Brown +1.344 to 43adjusted Brown +2.1 | 9% |
| Marist University | A- | Sep 27 | 1,298RV | Brown +851 to 43adjusted Brown +6.1 | 13% |
| Big Data Poll | banned | Sep 27 | 680LV | Brown +3.746 to 43adjusted Brown +3.5 | 0% |
| Suffolk University | A- | Sep 27 | 500LV | Brown +2.647 to 44adjusted Brown +2.7 | 9% |
| Quantus Insights | B/C | Sep 23 | 695LV | Brown +0.547 to 47adjusted Brown +3.4 | 4% |
| Trafalgar GroupRepublican sponsor | B | Sep 16 | 1,085LV | Brown +3.945 to 42adjusted Brown +6.0 | 2% |
| YouGov | B | Sep 10 | 1,000LV | Brown +348 to 45adjusted Brown +2.4 | 2% |
| InsiderAdvantage | B+ | Sep 09 | 1,200LV | Brown +5.447 to 42adjusted Brown +6.2 | 2% |
| Abacus Data | unrated | Aug 28 | 306LV | Brown +546 to 41adjusted Brown +4.7 | <1% |
| Wedgewood Polls | unrated | Aug 13 | 800LV | Brown +448 to 44adjusted Brown +3.7 | <1% |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | A- | Aug 10 | 1,008RV | Brown +853 to 45adjusted Brown +7.7 | <1% |
| Tulchin ResearchDemocratic sponsor | B/C | Aug 04 | 600LV | Brown +447 to 43adjusted Brown +1.8 | 0% |
| The New York Times/Siena University | A | Jun 28 | 601LV | Husted +2.847 to 50adjusted Husted +1.4 | 0% |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | B/C | Jun 16 | 800LV | Brown +348 to 45adjusted Brown +2.9 | 0% |
| Tulchin ResearchDemocratic sponsor | B/C | Jun 04 | 600LV | Brown +446 to 42adjusted Brown +1.8 | 0% |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | A- | Jun 01 | 1,015RV | Brown +853 to 45adjusted Brown +7.7 | 0% |
| Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov | unrated | Apr 14 | 1,000RV | Husted +347 to 50adjusted Husted +0.7 | 0% |
| Echelon Insights | A- | Apr 09 | 413LV | Husted +645 to 51adjusted Husted +4.5 | 0% |
| Quantus Insights | B/C | Mar 14 | 784LV | Husted +1.144 to 46adjusted Brown +1.8 | 0% |
| OnMessage Inc. | A | Mar 08 | 600LV | Brown +247 to 45 | 0% |
| EMC ResearchDemocratic sponsor | B/C | Feb 22 | 1,343LV | Brown +451 to 47adjusted Brown +1.0 | 0% |
| Emerson College | A | Dec 08 | 850RV | Husted +2.546 to 49adjusted Even | 0% |
| Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov | unrated | Oct 14 | 800RV | Brown +149 to 48adjusted Brown +3.3 | 0% |
| Emerson College | A | Aug 19 | 1,000RV | Husted +5.844 to 50adjusted Husted +3.3 | 0% |
| Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov | unrated | Apr 24 | 800RV | Husted +346 to 49adjusted Husted +0.7 | 0% |
| Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov | unrated | Feb 21 | 800RV | Husted +641 to 47adjusted Husted +3.7 | 0% |
Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.
▸ Race file // The facts
- The seat
- Jon Husted (R) was appointed to the seat and is running to keep it.
- On the ballot
- Sherrod Brown (D) vs Jon Husted (R, incumbent)
- President
- 2024, statewide: Trump 55.1, Harris 43.9. Trump by 11.2.
- The raters
- Cook Tossup · Sabato Tossup · Inside Elections Tossup
Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗
▸ Candidates // Read more
Democrat
Sherrod Brown
Brown on Ballotpedia ↗Republican
Jon Husted
Husted on Ballotpedia ↗