T-minus 16 days
● Senate // Race file
[ Senate // Alabama ]
Alabama
Everett Wess (D)vsBarry Moore (R)
open seat · Cook: Solid R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Solid R
99 in 100
Barry Moore favored>99%
All but certain for Barry Moore: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Barry Moore up 18.0.
- Seat:Open seat
- Cook:Solid R
- Sabato:Safe R
- Inside Elections:Solid R
- Odds:Moore >99%
- Margin:Moore +18.6, give or take 5.4
- Polls:2, averaging Moore +18.0
- Latest poll:RMG Research, Sep 25, Moore +21.0
- Generic ballot:D+8.2
- T-minus:16 days
▸ Margin // Uncertainty
Moore +18.6
The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.4 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.
- Projected margin
- Moore +18.6
- Uncertainty
- 5.4 points, one standard deviation
- Likely range
- Moore +25.6 to Moore +11.6 (80 percent)
- Poll average
- Moore +18.0 across 2 polls, worth 0.2 fresh polls after weighting
- Starting point
- Moore +19.4 before any polls, give or take 8.0
How polls have done here
7 Senate races here since 1998: the final polls missed by 6.9 points on average, on balance underrating Republicans. Last time, 2022, they were off by 6.2 toward Democrats.
Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Wess ahead is positive, Moore ahead is negative.
▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots
Reading the history
▸ Polls // 2 public polls
- RMG ResearchMoore +21Sep 25 · B · 800 RV33 to 54 · 100% weightRepublican sponsoradjusted Moore +18.0
- yes. every kid. foundation.Moore +15Jul 11 · unrated · 601 LV32 to 47 · 0% weight
| Pollster | Grade | Date | Sample | Result | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMG ResearchRepublican sponsor | B | Sep 25 | 800RV | Moore +2133 to 54adjusted Moore +18.0 | 100% |
| yes. every kid. foundation. | unrated | Jul 11 | 601LV | Moore +1532 to 47 | 0% |
Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.
▸ Race file // The facts
- The seat
- Tommy Tuberville (R) is not running again. Open seat.
- On the ballot
- Everett Wess (D) vs Barry Moore (R)
- Last time
- 2020: Tommy Tuberville (R) 60.1, Doug Jones (D) 39.7. Tuberville by 20.4.
- President
- 2024, statewide: Trump 64.6, Harris 34.1. Trump by 30.5.
- The raters
- Cook Solid R · Sabato Safe R · Inside Elections Solid R
Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗
▸ Candidates // Read more
Democrat
Everett Wess
Wess on Ballotpedia ↗Republican
Barry Moore
Moore on Ballotpedia ↗