Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● Senate // Race file

[ Senate // Delaware ]

Delaware

Chris Coons (D)vsMichael Katz (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Solid D

99 in 100

Chris Coons favored>99%

All but certain for Chris Coons: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Solid D
  • Sabato:Safe D
  • Inside Elections:Solid D
  • Odds:Coons >99%
  • Margin:Coons +27.0, give or take 7.0
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Coons +27.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 7.0 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Coons +27.0
Uncertainty
7.0 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Coons +18.0 to Coons +36.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Coons +27.0 before any polls, give or take 7.0

How polls have done here
5 Senate races here since 2000: the final polls missed by 6.1 points on average, on balance underrating Republicans. Last time, 2014, they were off by 4.4 toward Democrats.

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Coons ahead is positive, Katz ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the model's starting point for the state, Coons +27.0: the state's partisan lean, the incumbent (Chris Coons, running again, worth 3.0 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2). The uncertainty is 7.0 points until polls arrive.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Chris Coons (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Chris Coons (D, incumbent) vs Michael Katz (R)
Last time
2020: Chris Coons (D) 59.4, Lauren Witzke (R) 37.9. Coons by 21.5.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 41.8, Harris 56.5. Harris by 14.7.
The raters
Cook Solid D · Sabato Safe D · Inside Elections Solid D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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