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T-minus 16 days

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● Senate // Race file

[ Senate // Idaho ]

Idaho

Todd Achilles (I)vsJames Risch (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Solid R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Solid R

99 in 100

James Risch favored>99%

All but certain for James Risch: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: James Risch up 18.8.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Solid R
  • Sabato:Safe R
  • Inside Elections:Solid R
  • Odds:Risch >99%
  • Margin:Risch +22.7, give or take 6.0
  • Polls:7, averaging Risch +18.8
  • Latest poll:Peak Insights, Sep 30, Risch +25.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Risch +22.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.0 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Risch +22.7
Uncertainty
6.0 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Risch +30.3 to Risch +15.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
Risch +18.8 across 7 polls, worth 0.3 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Risch +29.8 before any polls, give or take 10.0

How polls have done here
5 Senate races here since 2002: the final polls missed by 4.5 points on average, on balance underrating Democrats. Last time, 2016, they were off by 13.8 toward Democrats.

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Achilles ahead is positive, Risch ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 7 public polls

  • Peak InsightsRisch +25
    Sep 30 · B/C · 500 LV24 to 49 · 100% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Risch +19.0
  • Peak InsightsRisch +34
    Aug 13 · B/C · 500 LV18 to 52 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Risch +28.0
  • The Bullfinch GroupRisch +4
    Aug 07 · unrated · 608 LV30 to 34 · 0% weight
    Independent sponsoradjusted Risch +6.4
  • Change ResearchRisch +24
    Jul 30 · C+19 to 43 · 0% weight
    Independent sponsoradjusted Risch +22.5
  • Peak InsightsRisch +48
    Jun 07 · B/C · 500 LV7 to 55 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Risch +42.0
  • The Bullfinch GroupRisch +23
    Jun 01 · unrated · 774 RV18 to 41 · 0% weight
    Independent sponsoradjusted Risch +25.4
  • Public Policy PollingRisch +14
    Mar 17 · B+ · 639 RV34 to 48 · 0% weight
    Independent sponsoradjusted Risch +11.0

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Jim Risch (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Todd Achilles (I) vs James Risch (R)
Last time
2020: Jim Risch (R) 62.6, Paulette Jordan (D) 33.3. Risch by 29.3.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 66.9, Harris 30.4. Trump by 36.5.
The raters
Cook Solid R · Sabato Safe R · Inside Elections Solid R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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