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T-minus 16 days

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● Senate // Race file

[ Senate // Illinois ]

Illinois

Juliana Stratton (D)vsDon Tracy (R)

open seat · Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Solid D

99 in 100

Juliana Stratton favored>99%

All but certain for Juliana Stratton: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Juliana Stratton up 16.0.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Cook:Solid D
  • Sabato:Safe D
  • Inside Elections:Solid D
  • Odds:Stratton >99%
  • Margin:Stratton +18.2, give or take 5.4
  • Polls:1, averaging Stratton +16.0
  • Latest poll:Public Policy Polling, Oct 01, Stratton +13.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Stratton +18.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.4 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Stratton +18.2
Uncertainty
5.4 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Stratton +11.2 to Stratton +25.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
Stratton +16.0 across 1 poll, worth 0.3 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Stratton +20.7 before any polls, give or take 8.0

How polls have done here
9 Senate races here since 1998: the final polls missed by 4.0 points on average, on balance underrating Republicans. Last time, 2022, they were off by 0.0.

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Stratton ahead is positive, Tracy ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Dick Durbin (D) is not running again. Open seat.
On the ballot
Juliana Stratton (D) vs Don Tracy (R)
Last time
2020: Dick Durbin (D) 54.9, Mark Curran (R) 38.9. Durbin by 16.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.5, Harris 54.4. Harris by 10.9.
The raters
Cook Solid D · Sabato Safe D · Inside Elections Solid D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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