T-minus 16 days
● Senate // Race file
[ Senate // Kentucky ]
Kentucky
Charles Booker (D)vsAndy Barr (R)
open seat · Cook: Solid R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Solid R
9 in 10
Andy Barr favored99%
All but certain for Andy Barr: a 99 percent chance of winning. Polls: Andy Barr up 11.4.
- Seat:Open seat
- Cook:Solid R
- Sabato:Safe R
- Inside Elections:Solid R
- Odds:Barr 99%
- Margin:Barr +15.0, give or take 5.4
- Polls:2, averaging Barr +11.4
- Latest poll:Global Strategy Group, Aug 27, Barr +9.0
- Generic ballot:D+8.2
- T-minus:16 days
▸ Margin // Uncertainty
Barr +15.0
The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.4 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.
- Projected margin
- Barr +15.0
- Uncertainty
- 5.4 points, one standard deviation
- Likely range
- Barr +22.0 to Barr +8.0 (80 percent)
- Poll average
- Barr +11.4 across 2 polls, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
- Starting point
- Barr +19.2 before any polls, give or take 8.0
How polls have done here
8 Senate races here since 1998: the final polls missed by 5.3 points on average, on balance underrating Democrats. Last time, 2020, they were off by 10.8 toward Democrats.
Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Booker ahead is positive, Barr ahead is negative.
▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots
Reading the history
▸ Polls // 2 public polls
- Global Strategy GroupBarr +9Aug 27 · B/C · 600 LV40 to 49 · 100% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Barr +11.4
- Public Policy PollingBarr +11Dec 19 · B+ · 650 RV38 to 49 · 0% weightDemocratic sponsor
| Pollster | Grade | Date | Sample | Result | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy GroupDemocratic sponsor | B/C | Aug 27 | 600LV | Barr +940 to 49adjusted Barr +11.4 | 100% |
| Public Policy PollingDemocratic sponsor | B+ | Dec 19 | 650RV | Barr +1138 to 49 | 0% |
Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.
▸ Race file // The facts
- The seat
- Mitch McConnell (R) is not running again. Open seat.
- On the ballot
- Charles Booker (D) vs Andy Barr (R)
- Last time
- 2020: Mitch McConnell (R) 57.8, Amy McGrath (D) 38.2. McConnell by 19.6.
- President
- 2024, statewide: Trump 64.5, Harris 33.9. Trump by 30.5.
- The raters
- Cook Solid R · Sabato Safe R · Inside Elections Solid R
Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗
▸ Candidates // Read more
Democrat
Charles Booker
Booker on Ballotpedia ↗Republican
Andy Barr
Barr on Ballotpedia ↗