Michigan

Abdul El-Sayed (D)vsMike Rogers (R)

open seat · Cook: Tossup · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Tilt D

8 in 10

Abdul El-Sayed favored80%

Likely for Abdul El-Sayed: a 80 percent chance of winning. Polls: Abdul El-Sayed up 3.3.

Seat:Open seat
Cook:Tossup
Sabato:Lean D
Inside Elections:Tilt D
Odds:El-Sayed 80%
Margin:El-Sayed +4.2, give or take 3.6
Polls:51, averaging El-Sayed +3.3
Latest poll:InsiderAdvantage, Oct 10, El-Sayed +2.3
Generic ballot:D+8.2
T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

El-Sayed +4.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 3.6 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin: El-Sayed +4.2
Uncertainty: 3.6 points, one standard deviation
Likely range: Rogers +0.4 to El-Sayed +8.8 (80 percent)
Poll average: El-Sayed +3.3 across 51 polls, worth 6.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point: El-Sayed +7.9 before any polls, give or take 8.0

How polls have done here
9 Senate races here since 2000: the final polls missed by 4.6 points on average, with no steady lean. Last time, 2024, they were off by 2.5 toward Democrats.

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: El-Sayed ahead is positive, Rogers ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 51 public polls

InsiderAdvantageEl-Sayed +2.3
Oct 10 · B+ · 1,200 LV48 to 46 · 13% weight
adjusted El-Sayed +3.1
Wedgewood PollsEl-Sayed +6
Oct 09 · unrated · 607 LV53 to 47 · 6% weight
adjusted El-Sayed +5.7
The Tyson GroupRogers +2
Oct 08 · B/C · 600 LV44 to 46 · 3% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted El-Sayed +1.0
Quantus InsightsEl-Sayed +1.2
Oct 06 · B/C · 744 LV48 to 47 · 6% weight
adjusted El-Sayed +4.1
YouGovEl-Sayed +1
Oct 04 · B · 3,947 LV49 to 48 · 17% weight
adjusted El-Sayed +0.4
Z to A ResearchEl-Sayed +7
Oct 01 · unrated · 483 LV49 to 42 · 2% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted El-Sayed +4.0
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsEl-Sayed +4.2
Oct 01 · C · 682 LV46 to 41 · 2% weight
adjusted El-Sayed +5.2
Trafalgar GroupEl-Sayed +1.8
Sep 30 · B · 1,085 LV47 to 45 · 3% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted El-Sayed +3.9
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company ResearchEl-Sayed +1
Sep 28 · A- · 1,028 LV50 to 49 · 6% weight
adjusted El-Sayed +0.7
Marist UniversityEl-Sayed +7
Sep 27 · A- · 1,235 RV51 to 44 · 9% weight
adjusted El-Sayed +5.1
The Tyson GroupEl-Sayed +1
Sep 27 · B/C · 600 LV44 to 43 · 1% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted El-Sayed +4.0
Guidant Polling and StrategyEl-Sayed +5
Sep 27 · unrated · 800 LV48 to 43 · 4% weight
Partisan sponsoradjusted El-Sayed +4.8
Big Data PollEl-Sayed +4.6
Sep 24 · banned · 678 LV47 to 42 · 0% weight
adjusted El-Sayed +4.4
co/efficientTie
Sep 23 · B · 843 LV45 to 45 · 4% weight
adjusted El-Sayed +3.0
GBAOEl-Sayed +4
Sep 22 · B/C · 800 LV48 to 44 · 1% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted El-Sayed +2.0
The New York Times/Siena UniversityEl-Sayed +5
Sep 22 · A · 605 LV49 to 45 · 5% weight
adjusted El-Sayed +6.3
Cygnal/Beacon ResearchEl-Sayed +5
Sep 21 · unrated · 600 LV45 to 40 · 2% weight
Suffolk UniversityEl-Sayed +7.2
Sep 20 · A- · 500 LV47 to 40 · 3% weight
adjusted El-Sayed +7.3
Torchlight StrategiesRogers +1.3
Sep 19 · B/C · 643 LV43 to 44 · 1% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted El-Sayed +1.7
InsiderAdvantageEl-Sayed +1.9
Sep 17 · B+ · 1,200 LV47 to 45 · 2% weight
adjusted El-Sayed +2.7
Emerson CollegeEl-Sayed +2.5
Sep 14 · A · 1,000 LV48 to 46 · 2% weight
adjusted El-Sayed +5.0
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and GovernmentEl-Sayed +3
Sep 14 · B/C · 803 LV48 to 45 · 2% weight
Trafalgar GroupEl-Sayed +1.5
Sep 09 · B · 1,079 LV46 to 45 · 1% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted El-Sayed +3.6
CNN/SSRSEl-Sayed +3
Sep 06 · unrated · 843 LV47 to 44 · 1% weight
Glengariff Group, Inc.Rogers +1.4
Sep 03 · A/B · 600 LV44 to 46 · <1% weight
adjusted El-Sayed +1.6
Abacus DataEl-Sayed +5
Aug 28 · unrated · 332 LV47 to 42 · <1% weight
adjusted El-Sayed +4.7
EPIC-MRAEl-Sayed +4
Aug 28 · B+ · 600 LV47 to 43 · <1% weight
Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGovEl-Sayed +5
Aug 20 · unrated · 779 LV50 to 45 · <1% weight
Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc.El-Sayed +7
Aug 17 · A- · 800 RV46 to 39 · <1% weight
Fabrizio Ward/Impact ResearchEl-Sayed +1
Aug 11 · B/C · 877 LV48 to 47 · <1% weight
adjusted El-Sayed +0.9
TIPP InsightsEl-Sayed +3.2
Aug 10 · A · 1,215 LV45 to 42 · <1% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted El-Sayed +4.5
GBAOEl-Sayed +6
Aug 10 · B/C · 800 LV50 to 44 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted El-Sayed +4.0
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company ResearchRogers +4
Aug 10 · A- · 1,006 RV47 to 51 · <1% weight
adjusted Rogers +4.3
EPIC-MRARogers +3
Jul 31 · B+ · 600 LV43 to 46 · 0% weight
SoCal StrategiesRogers +1
Jul 30 · unrated · 640 LV41 to 42 · 0% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted El-Sayed +1.9
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsTie
Jul 29 · C · 672 LV45 to 45 · 0% weight
adjusted El-Sayed +1.0
Glengariff Group, Inc.Rogers +10.3
Jul 24 · A/B · 600 LV39 to 49 · 0% weight
adjusted Rogers +7.3
Quantus InsightsEl-Sayed +1.1
Jun 30 · B/C · 947 LV45 to 44 · 0% weight
adjusted El-Sayed +4.0
Wedgewood PollsEl-Sayed +5
Jun 28 · unrated · 602 LV49 to 44 · 0% weight
adjusted El-Sayed +4.7
Data for ProgressEl-Sayed +1
Jun 22 · C+ · 709 LV47 to 46 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Rogers +0.4
Zenith ResearchEl-Sayed +3
Jun 14 · unrated · 602 LV45 to 42 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Even
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsEl-Sayed +5
Jun 13 · C · 827 LV47 to 42 · 0% weight
adjusted El-Sayed +6.0
Tulchin ResearchEl-Sayed +5
Jun 04 · B/C · 500 LV46 to 41 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted El-Sayed +2.8
TIPP InsightsEl-Sayed +1.3
May 23 · A · 1,163 LV43 to 42 · 0% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted El-Sayed +2.6
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsRogers +1
May 07 · C · 607 LV41 to 42 · 0% weight
adjusted Even
Glengariff Group, Inc.Rogers +4.9
May 01 · A/B · 600 LV40 to 45 · 0% weight
adjusted Rogers +1.9
Emerson CollegeRogers +0.3
Jan 25 · A · 1,000 LV43 to 43 · 0% weight
adjusted El-Sayed +2.2
Glengariff Group, Inc.Rogers +6.4
Jan 06 · A/B · 600 LV42 to 48 · 0% weight
adjusted Rogers +3.4
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsRogers +3
Nov 21 · C · 616 LV38 to 41 · 0% weight
adjusted Rogers +2.0
Rosetta StoneRogers +14
Oct 25 · unrated · 637 LV31 to 45 · 0% weight
Glengariff Group, Inc.Rogers +6.1
May 08 · A/B · 600 RV41 to 47 · 0% weight
adjusted Rogers +3.1

Pollster	Grade	Date	Sample	Result	Weight
InsiderAdvantage	B+	Oct 10	1,200LV	El-Sayed +2.348 to 46adjusted El-Sayed +3.1	13%
Wedgewood Polls	unrated	Oct 09	607LV	El-Sayed +653 to 47adjusted El-Sayed +5.7	6%
The Tyson GroupRepublican sponsor	B/C	Oct 08	600LV	Rogers +244 to 46adjusted El-Sayed +1.0	3%
Quantus Insights	B/C	Oct 06	744LV	El-Sayed +1.248 to 47adjusted El-Sayed +4.1	6%
YouGov	B	Oct 04	3,947LV	El-Sayed +149 to 48adjusted El-Sayed +0.4	17%
Z to A ResearchDemocratic sponsor	unrated	Oct 01	483LV	El-Sayed +749 to 42adjusted El-Sayed +4.0	2%
Mitchell Research & Communications	C	Oct 01	682LV	El-Sayed +4.246 to 41adjusted El-Sayed +5.2	2%
Trafalgar GroupRepublican sponsor	B	Sep 30	1,085LV	El-Sayed +1.847 to 45adjusted El-Sayed +3.9	3%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research	A-	Sep 28	1,028LV	El-Sayed +150 to 49adjusted El-Sayed +0.7	6%
Marist University	A-	Sep 27	1,235RV	El-Sayed +751 to 44adjusted El-Sayed +5.1	9%
The Tyson GroupRepublican sponsor	B/C	Sep 27	600LV	El-Sayed +144 to 43adjusted El-Sayed +4.0	1%
Guidant Polling and StrategyPartisan sponsor	unrated	Sep 27	800LV	El-Sayed +548 to 43adjusted El-Sayed +4.8	4%
Big Data Poll	banned	Sep 24	678LV	El-Sayed +4.647 to 42adjusted El-Sayed +4.4	0%
co/efficient	B	Sep 23	843LV	Tie45 to 45adjusted El-Sayed +3.0	4%
GBAODemocratic sponsor	B/C	Sep 22	800LV	El-Sayed +448 to 44adjusted El-Sayed +2.0	1%
The New York Times/Siena University	A	Sep 22	605LV	El-Sayed +549 to 45adjusted El-Sayed +6.3	5%
Cygnal/Beacon Research	unrated	Sep 21	600LV	El-Sayed +545 to 40	2%
Suffolk University	A-	Sep 20	500LV	El-Sayed +7.247 to 40adjusted El-Sayed +7.3	3%
Torchlight StrategiesRepublican sponsor	B/C	Sep 19	643LV	Rogers +1.343 to 44adjusted El-Sayed +1.7	1%
InsiderAdvantage	B+	Sep 17	1,200LV	El-Sayed +1.947 to 45adjusted El-Sayed +2.7	2%
Emerson College	A	Sep 14	1,000LV	El-Sayed +2.548 to 46adjusted El-Sayed +5.0	2%
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government	B/C	Sep 14	803LV	El-Sayed +348 to 45	2%
Trafalgar GroupRepublican sponsor	B	Sep 09	1,079LV	El-Sayed +1.546 to 45adjusted El-Sayed +3.6	1%
CNN/SSRS	unrated	Sep 06	843LV	El-Sayed +347 to 44	1%
Glengariff Group, Inc.	A/B	Sep 03	600LV	Rogers +1.444 to 46adjusted El-Sayed +1.6	<1%
Abacus Data	unrated	Aug 28	332LV	El-Sayed +547 to 42adjusted El-Sayed +4.7	<1%
EPIC-MRA	B+	Aug 28	600LV	El-Sayed +447 to 43	<1%
Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov	unrated	Aug 20	779LV	El-Sayed +550 to 45	<1%
Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc.	A-	Aug 17	800RV	El-Sayed +746 to 39	<1%
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research	B/C	Aug 11	877LV	El-Sayed +148 to 47adjusted El-Sayed +0.9	<1%
TIPP InsightsRepublican sponsor	A	Aug 10	1,215LV	El-Sayed +3.245 to 42adjusted El-Sayed +4.5	<1%
GBAODemocratic sponsor	B/C	Aug 10	800LV	El-Sayed +650 to 44adjusted El-Sayed +4.0	0%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research	A-	Aug 10	1,006RV	Rogers +447 to 51adjusted Rogers +4.3	<1%
EPIC-MRA	B+	Jul 31	600LV	Rogers +343 to 46	0%
SoCal StrategiesRepublican sponsor	unrated	Jul 30	640LV	Rogers +141 to 42adjusted El-Sayed +1.9	0%
Mitchell Research & Communications	C	Jul 29	672LV	Tie45 to 45adjusted El-Sayed +1.0	0%
Glengariff Group, Inc.	A/B	Jul 24	600LV	Rogers +10.339 to 49adjusted Rogers +7.3	0%
Quantus Insights	B/C	Jun 30	947LV	El-Sayed +1.145 to 44adjusted El-Sayed +4.0	0%
Wedgewood Polls	unrated	Jun 28	602LV	El-Sayed +549 to 44adjusted El-Sayed +4.7	0%
Data for ProgressDemocratic sponsor	C+	Jun 22	709LV	El-Sayed +147 to 46adjusted Rogers +0.4	0%
Zenith ResearchDemocratic sponsor	unrated	Jun 14	602LV	El-Sayed +345 to 42adjusted Even	0%
Mitchell Research & Communications	C	Jun 13	827LV	El-Sayed +547 to 42adjusted El-Sayed +6.0	0%
Tulchin ResearchDemocratic sponsor	B/C	Jun 04	500LV	El-Sayed +546 to 41adjusted El-Sayed +2.8	0%
TIPP InsightsRepublican sponsor	A	May 23	1,163LV	El-Sayed +1.343 to 42adjusted El-Sayed +2.6	0%
Mitchell Research & Communications	C	May 07	607LV	Rogers +141 to 42adjusted Even	0%
Glengariff Group, Inc.	A/B	May 01	600LV	Rogers +4.940 to 45adjusted Rogers +1.9	0%
Emerson College	A	Jan 25	1,000LV	Rogers +0.343 to 43adjusted El-Sayed +2.2	0%
Glengariff Group, Inc.	A/B	Jan 06	600LV	Rogers +6.442 to 48adjusted Rogers +3.4	0%
Mitchell Research & Communications	C	Nov 21	616LV	Rogers +338 to 41adjusted Rogers +2.0	0%
Rosetta Stone	unrated	Oct 25	637LV	Rogers +1431 to 45	0%
Glengariff Group, Inc.	A/B	May 08	600RV	Rogers +6.141 to 47adjusted Rogers +3.1	0%

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat: Gary Peters (D) is not running again. Open seat.
On the ballot: Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs Mike Rogers (R)
Last time: 2020: Gary Peters (D) 49.9, John James (R) 48.2. Peters by 1.7.
President: 2024, statewide: Trump 49.7, Harris 48.3. Trump by 1.4.
The raters: Cook Tossup · Sabato Lean D · Inside Elections Tilt D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

Democrat
Abdul El-Sayed
El-Sayed on Ballotpedia ↗
Republican
Mike Rogers
Rogers on Ballotpedia ↗

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