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T-minus 16 days

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● Senate // Race file

[ Senate // Montana ]

Montana

Seth Bodnar (I)vsKurt Alme (R)

open seat · Cook: Solid R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Solid R

9 in 10

Kurt Alme favored96%

Very likely for Kurt Alme: a 96 percent chance of winning. Polls: Kurt Alme up 13.4.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Cook:Solid R
  • Sabato:Safe R
  • Inside Elections:Solid R
  • Odds:Alme 96%
  • Margin:Alme +12.2, give or take 6.0
  • Polls:14, averaging Alme +13.4
  • Latest poll:Peak Insights, Oct 12, Alme +15.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Alme +12.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.0 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Alme +12.2
Uncertainty
6.0 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Alme +19.8 to Alme +4.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
Alme +13.4 across 14 polls, worth 1.1 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Alme +10.2 before any polls, give or take 10.0

How polls have done here
9 Senate races here since 2000: the final polls missed by 2.5 points on average, with no steady lean. Last time, 2024, they were off by 0.4.

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Bodnar ahead is positive, Alme ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 14 public polls

  • Peak InsightsAlme +15
    Oct 12 · B/C · 500 LV29 to 44 · 33% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Alme +9.0
  • American Pulse Research & PollingAlme +19
    Sep 24 · B/C · 604 LV26 to 45 · 26% weight
  • Aspect StrategicAlme +12
    Sep 15 · unrated · 715 LV32 to 44 · 15% weight
    Independent sponsor
  • Quantus InsightsAlme +19.2
    Sep 15 · B/C · 625 LV26 to 45 · 15% weight
    adjusted Alme +16.3
  • Rutgers-EagletonAlme +8
    Sep 07 · B/C · 845 RV30 to 38 · 9% weight
  • Peak InsightsAlme +22
    Aug 25 · B/C · 600 LV22 to 44 · 2% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Alme +16.0
  • Hart Research AssociatesAlme +15
    Aug 04 · A- · 800 LV30 to 45 · 0% weight
    Independent sponsoradjusted Alme +13.6
  • GQRAlme +14
    Jul 26 · A- · 500 LV27 to 41 · 0% weight
    Independent sponsor
  • The Bullfinch GroupAlme +12
    Jul 16 · unrated · 793 LV24 to 36 · 0% weight
    Independent sponsoradjusted Alme +14.4
  • Hart Research AssociatesAlme +22
    Jun 24 · A- · 800 LV25 to 47 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Alme +23.6
  • GrayHouseAlme +24
    Jun 24 · unrated · 500 LV17 to 41 · 0% weight
    adjusted Alme +21.7
  • Public Opinion StrategiesAlme +24
    Jun 11 · A · 500 LV20 to 44 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Alme +21.0
  • Tavern ResearchAlme +20
    May 18 · unrated · 607 LV26 to 46 · 0% weight
    Independent sponsoradjusted Alme +20.2
  • Change ResearchAlme +1.8
    Mar 20 · C+ · 616 LV35 to 37 · 0% weight
    Independent sponsoradjusted Alme +0.3

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Steve Daines (R) is not running again. Open seat.
On the ballot
Seth Bodnar (I) vs Kurt Alme (R)
Last time
2020: Steve Daines (R) 55.0, Steve Bullock (D) 45.0. Daines by 10.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 58.4, Harris 38.5. Trump by 19.9.
The raters
Cook Solid R · Sabato Safe R · Inside Elections Solid R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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