Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● Senate // Race file

[ Senate // Nebraska ]

Nebraska

Dan Osborn (I)vsPete Ricketts (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Likely R · Sabato: Lean R · Inside Elections: Lean R

8 in 10

Pete Ricketts favored76%

Likely for Pete Ricketts: a 76 percent chance of winning. Polls: a dead heat.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Likely R
  • Sabato:Lean R
  • Inside Elections:Lean R
  • Odds:Ricketts 76%
  • Margin:Ricketts +4.8, give or take 6.0
  • Polls:11, averaging Osborn +0.1
  • Latest poll:YouGov, Oct 03, Osborn +1.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Ricketts +4.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.0 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Ricketts +4.8
Uncertainty
6.0 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Ricketts +12.4 to Osborn +2.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
Osborn +0.1 across 11 polls, worth 0.9 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Ricketts +13.8 before any polls, give or take 10.0

How polls have done here
8 Senate races here since 2000: the final polls missed by 5.2 points on average, on balance underrating Democrats. Last time, 2024, they were off by 7.2 toward Democrats.

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Osborn ahead is positive, Ricketts ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 11 public polls

  • YouGovOsborn +1
    Oct 03 · B · 1,808 LV48 to 47 · 50% weight
    adjusted Osborn +0.4
  • co/efficientRicketts +4
    Sep 30 · B · 1,113 LV40 to 44 · 31% weight
    adjusted Ricketts +1.0
  • Wedgewood PollsRicketts +4
    Sep 16 · unrated · 500 LV48 to 52 · 6% weight
    adjusted Ricketts +4.3
  • SurveyUSAOsborn +4
    Sep 13 · A · 503 LV46 to 42 · 10% weight
  • GBAOOsborn +1
    Sep 08 · B/C · 800 LV47 to 46 · 3% weight
    Independent sponsoradjusted Osborn +2.0
  • Impact ResearchTie
    Aug 13 · B/C · 600 LV47 to 47 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Ricketts +1.9
  • GBAOTie
    Jul 26 · B/C · 800 LV47 to 47 · 0% weight
    Independent sponsoradjusted Osborn +1.0
  • Tavern ResearchOsborn +5
    May 11 · unrated · 1,165 LV47 to 42 · 0% weight
    Independent sponsoradjusted Osborn +4.8
  • GBAOOsborn +1
    Apr 20 · B/C · 800 LV46 to 45 · 0% weight
    Independent sponsoradjusted Osborn +2.0
  • Impact ResearchRicketts +1
    Feb 05 · B/C · 600 LV47 to 48 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Ricketts +2.9
  • Change ResearchRicketts +1
    Apr 01 · C+ · 524 LV45 to 46 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Ricketts +2.5

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Pete Ricketts (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Dan Osborn (I) vs Pete Ricketts (R, incumbent)
Last time
2020: Ben Sasse (R) 62.7, Chris Janicek (D) 24.4. Sasse by 38.3.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 59.3, Harris 38.9. Trump by 20.5.
The raters
Cook Likely R · Sabato Lean R · Inside Elections Lean R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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