T-minus 16 days
● Senate // Race file
[ Senate // Oklahoma (special) ]
Oklahoma special election
N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas (D)vsKevin Hern (R)
open seat · Cook: Solid R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Solid R
99 in 100
Kevin Hern favored>99%
All but certain for Kevin Hern: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Kevin Hern up 24.0.
- Seat:Open seat
- Cook:Solid R
- Sabato:Safe R
- Inside Elections:Solid R
- Odds:Hern >99%
- Margin:Hern +24.3, give or take 5.4
- Polls:1, averaging Hern +24.0
- Latest poll:Cole Hargrave, Aug 06, Hern +24.0
- Generic ballot:D+8.2
- T-minus:16 days
▸ Margin // Uncertainty
Hern +24.3
The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.4 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.
- Projected margin
- Hern +24.3
- Uncertainty
- 5.4 points, one standard deviation
- Likely range
- Hern +31.3 to Hern +17.3 (80 percent)
- Poll average
- Hern +24.0 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
- Starting point
- Hern +24.7 before any polls, give or take 8.0
How polls have done here
10 Senate races here since 1998: the final polls missed by 9.3 points on average, on balance underrating Democrats. Last time, 2022, they were off by 12.0 toward Democrats.
Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Thomas ahead is positive, Hern ahead is negative.
▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots
Reading the history
▸ Polls // 1 public poll
- Cole HargraveHern +24Aug 06 · B/C · 500 RV25 to 49 · 0% weight
| Pollster | Grade | Date | Sample | Result | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Hargrave | B/C | Aug 06 | 500RV | Hern +2425 to 49 | 0% |
Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.
▸ Race file // The facts
- The seat
- Alan Armstrong (R) is not running again. Open seat.
- On the ballot
- N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas (D) vs Kevin Hern (R)
- Last time
- 2020: Jim Inhofe (R) 62.9, Abby Broyles (D) 32.8. Inhofe by 30.1.
- President
- 2024, statewide: Trump 66.2, Harris 31.9. Trump by 34.3.
- The raters
- Cook Solid R · Sabato Safe R · Inside Elections Solid R
Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗
▸ Candidates // Read more
Democrat
N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas
Thomas on Ballotpedia ↗Republican
Kevin Hern
Hern on Ballotpedia ↗