Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● Senate // Race file

[ Senate // Oregon ]

Oregon

Jeff Merkley (D)vsDavid Smith (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Solid D

99 in 100

Jeff Merkley favored>99%

All but certain for Jeff Merkley: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Solid D
  • Sabato:Safe D
  • Inside Elections:Solid D
  • Odds:Merkley >99%
  • Margin:Merkley +24.9, give or take 7.0
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Merkley +24.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 7.0 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Merkley +24.9
Uncertainty
7.0 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Merkley +15.9 to Merkley +33.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Merkley +24.9 before any polls, give or take 7.0

How polls have done here
6 Senate races here since 2002: the final polls missed by 1.9 points on average, with no steady lean. Last time, 2022, they were off by 0.3.

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Merkley ahead is positive, Smith ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the model's starting point for the state, Merkley +24.9: the state's partisan lean, the incumbent (Jeff Merkley, running again, worth 3.0 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2). The uncertainty is 7.0 points until polls arrive.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Jeff Merkley (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Jeff Merkley (D, incumbent) vs David Smith (R)
Last time
2020: Jeff Merkley (D) 56.9, Jo Rae Perkins (R) 39.3. Merkley by 17.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 41.0, Harris 55.3. Harris by 14.3.
The raters
Cook Solid D · Sabato Safe D · Inside Elections Solid D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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