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T-minus 16 days

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● Senate // Race file

[ Senate // Tennessee ]

Tennessee

Marquita Bradshaw (D)vsBill Hagerty (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Solid R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Solid R

99 in 100

Bill Hagerty favored>99%

All but certain for Bill Hagerty: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Bill Hagerty up 25.0.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Solid R
  • Sabato:Safe R
  • Inside Elections:Solid R
  • Odds:Hagerty >99%
  • Margin:Hagerty +23.7, give or take 5.1
  • Polls:1, averaging Hagerty +25.0
  • Latest poll:Targoz Market Research, Aug 26, Hagerty +25.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Hagerty +23.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.1 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Hagerty +23.7
Uncertainty
5.1 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Hagerty +30.2 to Hagerty +17.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
Hagerty +25.0 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Hagerty +22.5 before any polls, give or take 7.0

How polls have done here
8 Senate races here since 2000: the final polls missed by 4.6 points on average, on balance underrating Democrats. Last time, 2020, they were off by 5.9 toward Democrats.

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Bradshaw ahead is positive, Hagerty ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Bill Hagerty (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Marquita Bradshaw (D) vs Bill Hagerty (R, incumbent)
Last time
2020: Bill Hagerty (R) 62.2, Marquita Bradshaw (D) 35.2. Hagerty by 27.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 64.2, Harris 34.5. Trump by 29.7.
The raters
Cook Solid R · Sabato Safe R · Inside Elections Solid R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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