Texas

James Talarico (D)vsKen Paxton (R)

open seat · Cook: Tossup · Sabato: Tossup · Inside Elections: Tilt R

6 in 10

James Talarico favored59%

A slight edge for James Talarico: a 59 percent chance of winning. Polls: James Talarico up 2.4.

Seat:Open seat
Cook:Tossup
Sabato:Tossup
Inside Elections:Tilt R
Odds:Talarico 59%
Margin:Talarico +1.1, give or take 3.6
Polls:54, averaging Talarico +2.4
Latest poll:ActiVote, Oct 14, Talarico +3.8
Generic ballot:D+8.2
T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Talarico +1.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 3.6 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin: Talarico +1.1
Uncertainty: 3.6 points, one standard deviation
Likely range: Paxton +3.5 to Talarico +5.7 (80 percent)
Poll average: Talarico +2.4 across 54 polls, worth 7.4 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point: Paxton +4.1 before any polls, give or take 8.0

How polls have done here
9 Senate races here since 2000: the final polls missed by 3.6 points on average, on balance underrating Democrats. Last time, 2024, they were off by 4.3 toward Democrats.

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Talarico ahead is positive, Paxton ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 54 public polls

ActiVoteTalarico +3.8
Oct 14 · unrated · 400 LV52 to 48 · 8% weight
InsiderAdvantagePaxton +1
Oct 14 · B+ · 1,200 LV48 to 49 · 14% weight
adjusted Paxton +0.2
Quantus InsightsPaxton +0.5
Oct 11 · B/C · 854 LV47 to 47 · 8% weight
adjusted Talarico +2.4
Marist UniversityTalarico +2
Oct 11 · A- · 1,196 LV47 to 45 · 13% weight
adjusted Talarico +0.1
Trafalgar GroupTalarico +3.5
Oct 08 · B · 1,086 LV47 to 44 · 4% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Talarico +5.6
ReconMR/Siena Research InstituteTalarico +4
Oct 08 · A · 617 LV48 to 44 · 6% weight
adjusted Talarico +3.5
YouGovTalarico +3
Oct 05 · B · 861 LV50 to 47 · 3% weight
adjusted Talarico +2.4
YouGovTalarico +6
Oct 05 · B · 3,623 LV50 to 44 · 6% weight
adjusted Talarico +5.4
The New York Times/Siena UniversityTalarico +5.7
Sep 30 · A · 615 LV51 to 45 · 5% weight
adjusted Talarico +7.1
Guidant Polling and StrategyTalarico +3
Sep 28 · unrated · 800 LV47 to 44 · 3% weight
Partisan sponsoradjusted Talarico +2.8
University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGovTie
Sep 28 · A- · 850 LV45 to 45 · 6% weight
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company ResearchTalarico +2
Sep 28 · A- · 881 LV51 to 49 · 5% weight
adjusted Talarico +1.7
Pulse Decision SciencePaxton +3
Sep 27 · unrated · 800 LV45 to 48 · 2% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Even
Big Data PollTalarico +1.9
Sep 26 · banned · 698 LV47 to 45 · 0% weight
adjusted Talarico +1.7
Stratus IntelligenceTie
Sep 24 · unrated · 865 LV48 to 48 · 1% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Talarico +3.0
Slingshot StrategiesTalarico +5
Sep 22 · B/C · 1,007 LV49 to 44 · 1% weight
adjusted Talarico +3.8
Marist UniversityTalarico +6
Sep 20 · A- · 1,139 RV50 to 44 · 3% weight
adjusted Talarico +4.1
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterTalarico +1
Sep 19 · unrated · 1,800 LV47 to 46 · 2% weight
adjusted Talarico +1.5
Trafalgar GroupTalarico +1.2
Sep 17 · B · 1,079 LV46 to 45 · 1% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Talarico +3.3
Emerson CollegeTalarico +1
Sep 14 · A · 1,000 LV47 to 46 · 2% weight
adjusted Talarico +3.5
SoCal StrategiesTalarico +5
Sep 13 · unrated · 649 LV50 to 45 · 1% weight
adjusted Talarico +4.9
ReconMR/Siena Research InstituteTalarico +6
Sep 11 · A · 614 LV49 to 43 · 1% weight
adjusted Talarico +5.5
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.Talarico +3
Sep 10 · A- · 625 LV46 to 43 · 2% weight
adjusted Talarico +3.4
InsiderAdvantageTalarico +1.5
Sep 09 · B+ · 1,200 LV47 to 46 · 1% weight
adjusted Talarico +2.3
YouGovTalarico +5
Sep 04 · B · 1,000 RV48 to 43 · <1% weight
adjusted Talarico +4.4
Fabrizio Ward/Impact ResearchTalarico +4
Sep 01 · B/C · 895 LV48 to 44 · 1% weight
adjusted Talarico +3.9
Overton InsightsTie
Aug 26 · unrated · 1,167 LV50 to 50 · <1% weight
Slingshot StrategiesTalarico +6
Aug 24 · B/C · 1,000 LV48 to 42 · <1% weight
adjusted Talarico +4.8
YouGovTalarico +3
Aug 13 · B · 1,200 RV42 to 39 · 0% weight
adjusted Talarico +2.4
Emerson CollegePaxton +1
Aug 10 · A · 1,000 LV46 to 47 · <1% weight
adjusted Talarico +1.5
Wedgewood PollsTalarico +2
Jul 31 · unrated · 800 LV48 to 46 · 0% weight
adjusted Talarico +1.7
YouGov BlueTalarico +3
Jul 31 · B · 1,001 LV48 to 45 · 0% weight
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterTalarico +2
Jul 30 · unrated · 1,200 LV47 to 45 · 0% weight
adjusted Talarico +2.5
ReconMR/Siena Research InstituteTalarico +4
Jul 30 · A · 619 LV47 to 43 · 0% weight
adjusted Talarico +3.5
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company ResearchTalarico +3
Jul 27 · A- · 1,006 RV51 to 48 · 0% weight
adjusted Talarico +2.7
Slingshot StrategiesTalarico +5
Jul 17 · B/C · 1,048 LV45 to 40 · 0% weight
adjusted Talarico +3.8
A2 InsightsTalarico +2.3
Jun 28 · unrated · 618 LV48 to 46 · 0% weight
The New York Times/Siena UniversityPaxton +0.1
Jun 27 · A · 656 LV47 to 47 · 0% weight
adjusted Talarico +1.3
SoCal StrategiesPaxton +1.5
Jun 21 · unrated · 800 LV47 to 49 · 0% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Talarico +1.4
YouGovPaxton +1
Jun 12 · B · 1,200 RV42 to 43 · 0% weight
adjusted Paxton +1.6
Quantus InsightsPaxton +2
Jun 04 · B/C · 800 LV43 to 45 · 0% weight
adjusted Talarico +0.9
ReconMR/Siena Research InstituteTie
Jun 04 · A · 807 LV46 to 46 · 0% weight
adjusted Paxton +0.5
Slingshot StrategiesTalarico +3
May 28 · B/C · 1,670 LV47 to 44 · 0% weight
adjusted Talarico +1.8
Public Policy PollingTalarico +7
May 23 · B+ · 643 RV45 to 38 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsor
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterTie
May 06 · unrated · 1,223 LV45 to 45 · 0% weight
adjusted Talarico +0.5
YouGovTalarico +8
Apr 20 · B · 1,200 RV42 to 34 · 0% weight
adjusted Talarico +7.4
Slingshot StrategiesTalarico +5
Apr 20 · B/C · 1,018 LV46 to 41 · 0% weight
adjusted Talarico +3.8
Impact ResearchTalarico +1
Mar 17 · B/C · 900 LV44 to 43 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Paxton +0.9
Public Policy PollingTalarico +2
Mar 05 · B+ · 576 RV47 to 45 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsor
University of Houston Hobby School of Public AffairsPaxton +2
Jan 31 · unrated · 1,502 LV44 to 46 · 0% weight
Emerson CollegeTie
Jan 12 · A · 1,165 RV46 to 46 · 0% weight
adjusted Talarico +2.5
Ragnar Research PartnersTie
Nov 17 · B/C · 1,000 LV44 to 44 · 0% weight
University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/Texas Southern University School of Public AffairsPaxton +3
Oct 01 · B/C · 1,183 LV46 to 49 · 0% weight
University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion ResearchPaxton +1
Sep 24 · B/C · 1,032 RV37 to 38 · 0% weight

Pollster	Grade	Date	Sample	Result	Weight
ActiVote	unrated	Oct 14	400LV	Talarico +3.852 to 48	8%
InsiderAdvantage	B+	Oct 14	1,200LV	Paxton +148 to 49adjusted Paxton +0.2	14%
Quantus Insights	B/C	Oct 11	854LV	Paxton +0.547 to 47adjusted Talarico +2.4	8%
Marist University	A-	Oct 11	1,196LV	Talarico +247 to 45adjusted Talarico +0.1	13%
Trafalgar GroupRepublican sponsor	B	Oct 08	1,086LV	Talarico +3.547 to 44adjusted Talarico +5.6	4%
ReconMR/Siena Research Institute	A	Oct 08	617LV	Talarico +448 to 44adjusted Talarico +3.5	6%
YouGov	B	Oct 05	861LV	Talarico +350 to 47adjusted Talarico +2.4	3%
YouGov	B	Oct 05	3,623LV	Talarico +650 to 44adjusted Talarico +5.4	6%
The New York Times/Siena University	A	Sep 30	615LV	Talarico +5.751 to 45adjusted Talarico +7.1	5%
Guidant Polling and StrategyPartisan sponsor	unrated	Sep 28	800LV	Talarico +347 to 44adjusted Talarico +2.8	3%
University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov	A-	Sep 28	850LV	Tie45 to 45	6%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research	A-	Sep 28	881LV	Talarico +251 to 49adjusted Talarico +1.7	5%
Pulse Decision ScienceRepublican sponsor	unrated	Sep 27	800LV	Paxton +345 to 48adjusted Even	2%
Big Data Poll	banned	Sep 26	698LV	Talarico +1.947 to 45adjusted Talarico +1.7	0%
Stratus IntelligenceRepublican sponsor	unrated	Sep 24	865LV	Tie48 to 48adjusted Talarico +3.0	1%
Slingshot Strategies	B/C	Sep 22	1,007LV	Talarico +549 to 44adjusted Talarico +3.8	1%
Marist University	A-	Sep 20	1,139RV	Talarico +650 to 44adjusted Talarico +4.1	3%
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center	unrated	Sep 19	1,800LV	Talarico +147 to 46adjusted Talarico +1.5	2%
Trafalgar GroupRepublican sponsor	B	Sep 17	1,079LV	Talarico +1.246 to 45adjusted Talarico +3.3	1%
Emerson College	A	Sep 14	1,000LV	Talarico +147 to 46adjusted Talarico +3.5	2%
SoCal Strategies	unrated	Sep 13	649LV	Talarico +550 to 45adjusted Talarico +4.9	1%
ReconMR/Siena Research Institute	A	Sep 11	614LV	Talarico +649 to 43adjusted Talarico +5.5	1%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.	A-	Sep 10	625LV	Talarico +346 to 43adjusted Talarico +3.4	2%
InsiderAdvantage	B+	Sep 09	1,200LV	Talarico +1.547 to 46adjusted Talarico +2.3	1%
YouGov	B	Sep 04	1,000RV	Talarico +548 to 43adjusted Talarico +4.4	<1%
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research	B/C	Sep 01	895LV	Talarico +448 to 44adjusted Talarico +3.9	1%
Overton Insights	unrated	Aug 26	1,167LV	Tie50 to 50	<1%
Slingshot Strategies	B/C	Aug 24	1,000LV	Talarico +648 to 42adjusted Talarico +4.8	<1%
YouGov	B	Aug 13	1,200RV	Talarico +342 to 39adjusted Talarico +2.4	0%
Emerson College	A	Aug 10	1,000LV	Paxton +146 to 47adjusted Talarico +1.5	<1%
Wedgewood Polls	unrated	Jul 31	800LV	Talarico +248 to 46adjusted Talarico +1.7	0%
YouGov Blue	B	Jul 31	1,001LV	Talarico +348 to 45	0%
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center	unrated	Jul 30	1,200LV	Talarico +247 to 45adjusted Talarico +2.5	0%
ReconMR/Siena Research Institute	A	Jul 30	619LV	Talarico +447 to 43adjusted Talarico +3.5	0%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research	A-	Jul 27	1,006RV	Talarico +351 to 48adjusted Talarico +2.7	0%
Slingshot Strategies	B/C	Jul 17	1,048LV	Talarico +545 to 40adjusted Talarico +3.8	0%
A2 Insights	unrated	Jun 28	618LV	Talarico +2.348 to 46	0%
The New York Times/Siena University	A	Jun 27	656LV	Paxton +0.147 to 47adjusted Talarico +1.3	0%
SoCal StrategiesRepublican sponsor	unrated	Jun 21	800LV	Paxton +1.547 to 49adjusted Talarico +1.4	0%
YouGov	B	Jun 12	1,200RV	Paxton +142 to 43adjusted Paxton +1.6	0%
Quantus Insights	B/C	Jun 04	800LV	Paxton +243 to 45adjusted Talarico +0.9	0%
ReconMR/Siena Research Institute	A	Jun 04	807LV	Tie46 to 46adjusted Paxton +0.5	0%
Slingshot Strategies	B/C	May 28	1,670LV	Talarico +347 to 44adjusted Talarico +1.8	0%
Public Policy PollingDemocratic sponsor	B+	May 23	643RV	Talarico +745 to 38	0%
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center	unrated	May 06	1,223LV	Tie45 to 45adjusted Talarico +0.5	0%
YouGov	B	Apr 20	1,200RV	Talarico +842 to 34adjusted Talarico +7.4	0%
Slingshot Strategies	B/C	Apr 20	1,018LV	Talarico +546 to 41adjusted Talarico +3.8	0%
Impact ResearchDemocratic sponsor	B/C	Mar 17	900LV	Talarico +144 to 43adjusted Paxton +0.9	0%
Public Policy PollingDemocratic sponsor	B+	Mar 05	576RV	Talarico +247 to 45	0%
University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs	unrated	Jan 31	1,502LV	Paxton +244 to 46	0%
Emerson College	A	Jan 12	1,165RV	Tie46 to 46adjusted Talarico +2.5	0%
Ragnar Research Partners	B/C	Nov 17	1,000LV	Tie44 to 44	0%
University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/Texas Southern University School of Public Affairs	B/C	Oct 01	1,183LV	Paxton +346 to 49	0%
University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research	B/C	Sep 24	1,032RV	Paxton +137 to 38	0%

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat: John Cornyn (R) is not running again. Open seat.
On the ballot: James Talarico (D) vs Ken Paxton (R)
Last time: 2020: John Cornyn (R) 53.5, MJ Hegar (D) 43.9. Cornyn by 9.6.
President: 2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
The raters: Cook Tossup · Sabato Tossup · Inside Elections Tilt R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

Democrat
James Talarico
Talarico on Ballotpedia ↗
Republican
Ken Paxton
Paxton on Ballotpedia ↗

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