Virginia

Mark Warner (D)vsBert Mizusawa (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Solid D

9 in 10

Mark Warner favored99%

All but certain for Mark Warner: a 99 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

Seat:Incumbent running
Cook:Solid D
Sabato:Safe D
Inside Elections:Solid D
Odds:Warner 99%
Margin:Warner +17.8, give or take 7.0
Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
Generic ballot:D+8.2
T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Warner +17.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 7.0 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin: Warner +17.8
Uncertainty: 7.0 points, one standard deviation
Likely range: Warner +8.8 to Warner +26.8 (80 percent)
Poll average: No polls
Starting point: Warner +17.8 before any polls, give or take 7.0

How polls have done here
7 Senate races here since 2000: the final polls missed by 3.2 points on average, with no steady lean. Last time, 2024, they were off by 0.4.

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Warner ahead is positive, Mizusawa ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the model's starting point for the state, Warner +17.8: the state's partisan lean, the incumbent (Mark Warner, running again, worth 3.0 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2). The uncertainty is 7.0 points until polls arrive.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat: Mark Warner (D), running for another term.
On the ballot: Mark Warner (D, incumbent) vs Bert Mizusawa (R)
Last time: 2020: Mark Warner (D) 56.0, Daniel Gade (R) 43.9. Warner by 12.1.
President: 2024, statewide: Trump 46.0, Harris 51.8. Harris by 5.8.
The raters: Cook Solid D · Sabato Safe D · Inside Elections Solid D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

Democrat
Mark Warner
Warner on Ballotpedia ↗
Republican
Bert Mizusawa
Mizusawa on Ballotpedia ↗

◀ Back to the map