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T-minus 16 days

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● Senate // Race file

[ Senate // West Virginia ]

West Virginia

Rachel Fetty Anderson (D)vsShelley Moore Capito (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Solid R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Solid R

99 in 100

Shelley Moore Capito favored>99%

All but certain for Shelley Moore Capito: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Solid R
  • Sabato:Safe R
  • Inside Elections:Solid R
  • Odds:Capito >99%
  • Margin:Capito +36.7, give or take 7.0
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Capito +36.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 7.0 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Capito +36.7
Uncertainty
7.0 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Capito +45.7 to Capito +27.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Capito +36.7 before any polls, give or take 7.0

How polls have done here
7 Senate races here since 2000: the final polls missed by 10.8 points on average, with no steady lean. Last time, 2018, they were off by 2.6 toward Democrats.

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Anderson ahead is positive, Capito ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the model's starting point for the state, Capito +36.7: the state's partisan lean, the incumbent (Shelley Moore Capito, running again, worth 3.0 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2). The uncertainty is 7.0 points until polls arrive.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Shelley Moore Capito (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Rachel Fetty Anderson (D) vs Shelley Moore Capito (R, incumbent)
Last time
2020: Shelley Moore Capito (R) 70.3, Paula Jean Swearengin (D) 27.0. Capito by 43.3.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 70.0, Harris 28.1. Trump by 41.9.
The raters
Cook Solid R · Sabato Safe R · Inside Elections Solid R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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