T-minus 16 days
● House // Race file
[ House // AK-01 ]
Alaska at large
Eric Hafner (D)vsNick Begich III (R)
incumbent running · Lean: R+6 · Incumbent: Nick Begich III (R)
99 in 100
Nick Begich III favored>99%
All but certain for Nick Begich III: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Nick Begich III up 40.3.
- Seat:Incumbent running
- Lean:R+6
- Incumbent:Nick Begich III (R)
- Odds:Begich >99%
- Margin:Begich +19.7, give or take 4.8
- Polls:14, averaging Begich +40.3
- Latest poll:Alaska Survey Research, Oct 03, Begich +42.9
- Generic ballot:D+8.2
- T-minus:16 days
▸ Margin // Uncertainty
Begich +19.7
The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.
- Projected margin
- Begich +19.7
- Uncertainty
- 4.8 points, one standard deviation
- Likely range
- Begich +25.8 to Begich +13.6 (80 percent)
- Poll average
- Begich +40.3 across 14 polls, worth 0.8 fresh polls after weighting
- Starting point
- Begich +5.3 before any polls
Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Hafner ahead is positive, Begich ahead is negative.
▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots
Reading the history
▸ Polls // 14 public polls
- Alaska Survey ResearchBegich +42.9Oct 03 · A/B · 1,512 LV7 to 50 · 46% weight
- The New York Times/Siena UniversityBegich +38.4Oct 01 · A · 504 LV8 to 47 · 36% weight
- Fabrizio Ward/Impact ResearchBegich +36Sep 11 · B/C · 800 LV9 to 45 · 9% weight
- The Bullfinch GroupBegich +36.8Sep 06 · unrated · 820 LV7 to 44 · 4% weightIndependent sponsor
- Alaska Survey ResearchBegich +44.9Aug 23 · A/B · 1,872 LV6 to 51 · 3% weight
- Alaska Survey ResearchBegich +33.2Aug 05 · A/B · 1,371 LV15 to 48 · 1% weight
- The Bullfinch GroupBegich +14Jul 16 · unrated · 546 LV32 to 46 · 0% weightIndependent sponsor
- The New York Times/Siena UniversityBegich +12Jun 29 · A · 593 LV39 to 51 · 0% weight
- Tavern ResearchBegich +10May 27 · unrated · 452 LV45 to 55 · 0% weightIndependent sponsoradjusted Begich +13.0
- Change ResearchBegich +27.4Mar 20 · C+ · 624 LV17 to 45 · 0% weightIndependent sponsoradjusted Begich +28.7
- Public Policy PollingBegich +7Feb 12 · B+ · 600 LV39 to 46 · 0% weightIndependent sponsoradjusted Begich +6.4
- Data for ProgressBegich +11Oct 23 · C+ · 823 LV37 to 48 · 0% weightadjusted Begich +14.0
- Data for ProgressBegich +10Jul 27 · C+ · 678 LV38 to 48 · 0% weightadjusted Begich +13.0
- Mar 07 · C+ · 1,008 LV46 to 46 · 0% weightadjusted Begich +3.0
| Pollster | Grade | Date | Sample | Result | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | A/B | Oct 03 | 1,512LV | Begich +42.97 to 50 | 46% |
| The New York Times/Siena University | A | Oct 01 | 504LV | Begich +38.48 to 47 | 36% |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | B/C | Sep 11 | 800LV | Begich +369 to 45 | 9% |
| The Bullfinch GroupIndependent sponsor | unrated | Sep 06 | 820LV | Begich +36.87 to 44 | 4% |
| Alaska Survey Research | A/B | Aug 23 | 1,872LV | Begich +44.96 to 51 | 3% |
| Alaska Survey Research | A/B | Aug 05 | 1,371LV | Begich +33.215 to 48 | 1% |
| The Bullfinch GroupIndependent sponsor | unrated | Jul 16 | 546LV | Begich +1432 to 46 | 0% |
| The New York Times/Siena University | A | Jun 29 | 593LV | Begich +1239 to 51 | 0% |
| Tavern ResearchIndependent sponsor | unrated | May 27 | 452LV | Begich +1045 to 55adjusted Begich +13.0 | 0% |
| Change ResearchIndependent sponsor | C+ | Mar 20 | 624LV | Begich +27.417 to 45adjusted Begich +28.7 | 0% |
| Public Policy PollingIndependent sponsor | B+ | Feb 12 | 600LV | Begich +739 to 46adjusted Begich +6.4 | 0% |
| Data for Progress | C+ | Oct 23 | 823LV | Begich +1137 to 48adjusted Begich +14.0 | 0% |
| Data for Progress | C+ | Jul 27 | 678LV | Begich +1038 to 48adjusted Begich +13.0 | 0% |
| Data for Progress | C+ | Mar 07 | 1,008LV | Tie46 to 46adjusted Begich +3.0 | 0% |
Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.
▸ Race file // The facts
- The seat
- Nick Begich III (R), running for another term.
- On the ballot
- Eric Hafner (D) vs Nick Begich III (R, incumbent)
- Last time
- 2024: Democrat 48.8, Republican 51.2. Begich by 2.4.
- President
- 2024, statewide: Trump 54.5, Harris 41.4. Trump by 13.1.
- Lean
- R+6 by the Cook partisan index
Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗
▸ Candidates // Read more
Democrat
Eric Hafner
Hafner on Ballotpedia ↗Republican
Nick Begich III
Begich on Ballotpedia ↗