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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // WI-03 ]

Wisconsin's 3rd District

Rebecca Cooke (D)vsDerrick Van Orden (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+3 · Incumbent: Derrick Van Orden (R)

a coin flip

Too close to call51%

The model gives Rebecca Cooke a 49 percent chance and Derrick Van Orden 51 percent. Inside five points either way the model does not name a favorite. Polls: a dead heat.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+3
  • Incumbent:Derrick Van Orden (R)
  • District:3 of 8 in Wisconsin
  • Odds:a coin flip, Orden 51%
  • Margin:Orden +0.2, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:5, averaging Orden +0.3
  • Latest poll:FM3 Research, Jun 25, Cooke +4.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Orden +0.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Orden +0.2
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Orden +6.3 to Cooke +5.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
Orden +0.3 across 5 polls, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Orden +0.1 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Cooke ahead is positive, Orden ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 5 public polls

  • FM3 ResearchCooke +4
    Jun 25 · B/C · 535 LV50 to 46 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Orden +0.4
  • FM3 ResearchCooke +4
    Jun 25 · B/C · 535 LV50 to 46 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Orden +0.4
  • Impact ResearchCooke +4
    May 31 · B/C · 500 LV50 to 46 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Cooke +0.7
  • Impact ResearchCooke +1
    Feb 17 · B/C · 500 LV49 to 48 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Orden +2.3
  • Public Policy PollingCooke +2
    Oct 15 · B+ · 609 RV44 to 42 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Orden +1.9

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Derrick Van Orden (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Rebecca Cooke (D) vs Derrick Van Orden (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 48.6, Republican 51.4. Orden by 2.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 49.6, Harris 48.7. Trump by 0.9.
Lean
R+3 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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