T-minus 16 days
● House // Race file
[ House // WI-01 ]
Wisconsin's 1st District
Mitchell Berman (D)vsBryan Steil (R)
incumbent running · Lean: R+2 · Incumbent: Bryan Steil (R)
a coin flip
Too close to call50%
The model gives Mitchell Berman a 50 percent chance and Bryan Steil 50 percent. Inside five points either way the model does not name a favorite. Polls: Bryan Steil up 2.4.
- Seat:Incumbent running
- Lean:R+2
- Incumbent:Bryan Steil (R)
- District:1 of 8 in Wisconsin
- Odds:a coin flip, Steil 50%
- Margin:Even, give or take 4.8
- Polls:4, averaging Steil +2.4
- Latest poll:Impact Research, Oct 01, Berman +1.0
- Generic ballot:D+8.2
- T-minus:16 days
▸ Margin // Uncertainty
Even
The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.
- Projected margin
- Even
- Uncertainty
- 4.8 points, one standard deviation
- Likely range
- Steil +6.1 to Berman +6.1 (80 percent)
- Poll average
- Steil +2.4 across 4 polls, worth 0.5 fresh polls after weighting
- Starting point
- Berman +1.7 before any polls
Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Berman ahead is positive, Steil ahead is negative.
▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots
Reading the history
▸ Polls // 4 public polls
- Impact ResearchBerman +1Oct 01 · B/C · 500 LV49 to 48 · 57% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Steil +2.3
- Sep 23 · B/C · 495 LV48 to 48 · 43% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Steil +2.6
- Impact ResearchSteil +1Aug 09 · B/C · 400 LV48 to 49 · 0% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Steil +4.3
- Ragnar Research PartnersSteil +9Mar 16 · B/C · 400 LV41 to 50 · 0% weightRepublican sponsoradjusted Steil +5.3
| Pollster | Grade | Date | Sample | Result | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact ResearchDemocratic sponsor | B/C | Oct 01 | 500LV | Berman +149 to 48adjusted Steil +2.3 | 57% |
| DCCC Targeting TeamDemocratic sponsor | B/C | Sep 23 | 495LV | Tie48 to 48adjusted Steil +2.6 | 43% |
| Impact ResearchDemocratic sponsor | B/C | Aug 09 | 400LV | Steil +148 to 49adjusted Steil +4.3 | 0% |
| Ragnar Research PartnersRepublican sponsor | B/C | Mar 16 | 400LV | Steil +941 to 50adjusted Steil +5.3 | 0% |
Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.
▸ Race file // The facts
- The seat
- Bryan Steil (R), running for another term.
- On the ballot
- Mitchell Berman (D) vs Bryan Steil (R, incumbent)
- Last time
- 2024: Democrat 43.9, Republican 54.1. Steil by 10.2.
- President
- 2024, statewide: Trump 49.6, Harris 48.7. Trump by 0.9.
- Lean
- R+2 by the Cook partisan index
Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗
▸ Candidates // Read more
Democrat
Mitchell Berman
Berman on Ballotpedia ↗Republican
Bryan Steil
Steil on Ballotpedia ↗