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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NH-01 ]

New Hampshire's 1st District

Stefany Shaheen (D)vsAnthony DiLorenzo (R)

open seat · Lean: D+2 · Incumbent: Chris Pappas (D), not running

9 in 10

Stefany Shaheen favored93%

Very likely for Stefany Shaheen: a 93 percent chance of winning. Polls: Stefany Shaheen up 3.1.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:D+2
  • Incumbent:Chris Pappas (D), not running
  • District:1 of 2 in New Hampshire
  • Odds:Shaheen 93%
  • Margin:Shaheen +9.1, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Shaheen +3.1
  • Latest poll:University of New Hampshire, Sep 21, Shaheen +4.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Shaheen +9.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Shaheen +9.1
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Shaheen +3.0 to Shaheen +15.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
Shaheen +3.1 across 1 poll, worth 0.2 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Shaheen +13.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Shaheen ahead is positive, DiLorenzo ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Chris Pappas (D) is running for Senate instead. Open seat.
On the ballot
Stefany Shaheen (D) vs Anthony DiLorenzo (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 54.0, Republican 46.0. Pappas by 8.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 47.9, Harris 50.6. Harris by 2.8.
Lean
D+2 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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