Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // VT-01 ]

Vermont at large

Becca Balint (D)vsGerald Malloy (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+17 · Incumbent: Becca Balint (D)

99 in 100

Becca Balint favored>99%

All but certain for Becca Balint: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Becca Balint up 23.7.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+17
  • Incumbent:Becca Balint (D)
  • Odds:Balint >99%
  • Margin:Balint +35.8, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:4, averaging Balint +23.7
  • Latest poll:University of New Hampshire, Sep 21, Balint +36.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Balint +35.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Balint +35.8
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Balint +29.7 to Balint +41.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
Balint +23.7 across 4 polls, worth 0.3 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Balint +44.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Balint ahead is positive, Malloy ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 4 public polls

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Becca Balint (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Becca Balint (D, incumbent) vs Gerald Malloy (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 62.5, Republican 29.9. Balint by 32.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 32.3, Harris 63.8. Harris by 31.5.
Lean
D+17 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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