Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // DE-01 ]

Delaware at large

Sarah McBride (D)vsJoseph Arminio (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+8 · Incumbent: Sarah McBride (D)

99 in 100

Sarah McBride favored>99%

All but certain for Sarah McBride: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+8
  • Incumbent:Sarah McBride (D)
  • Odds:McBride >99%
  • Margin:McBride +28.6, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

McBride +28.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
McBride +28.6
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
McBride +20.7 to McBride +36.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
McBride +28.6 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: McBride ahead is positive, Arminio ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+8, worth 13.9 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Sarah McBride, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of McBride +28.6 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Sarah McBride (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Sarah McBride (D, incumbent) vs Joseph Arminio (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 57.9, Republican 42.1. McBride by 15.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 41.8, Harris 56.5. Harris by 14.7.
Lean
D+8 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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