Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // RI-02 ]

Rhode Island's 2nd District

Seth Magaziner (D)vsVic Mellor (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+4 · Incumbent: Seth Magaziner (D)

99 in 100

Seth Magaziner favored>99%

All but certain for Seth Magaziner: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Seth Magaziner up 16.1.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+4
  • Incumbent:Seth Magaziner (D)
  • District:2 of 2 in Rhode Island
  • Odds:Magaziner >99%
  • Margin:Magaziner +19.3, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Magaziner +16.1
  • Latest poll:Emerson College, Oct 11, Magaziner +16.1
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Magaziner +19.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Magaziner +19.3
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Magaziner +13.2 to Magaziner +25.4 (80 percent)
Poll average
Magaziner +16.1 across 1 poll, worth 0.6 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Magaziner +21.6 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Magaziner ahead is positive, Mellor ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Seth Magaziner (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Seth Magaziner (D, incumbent) vs Vic Mellor (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 58.4, Republican 41.6. Magaziner by 16.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 41.8, Harris 55.5. Harris by 13.8.
Lean
D+4 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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