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T-minus 16 days

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[ House // SD-01 ]

South Dakota at large

Nikki Gronli (D)vsMarty Jackley (R)

open seat · Lean: R+15 · Incumbent: Dusty Johnson (R), not running

9 in 10

Marty Jackley favored97%

All but certain for Marty Jackley: a 97 percent chance of winning. Polls: Marty Jackley up 6.6.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+15
  • Incumbent:Dusty Johnson (R), not running
  • Odds:Jackley 97%
  • Margin:Jackley +12.2, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Jackley +6.6
  • Latest poll:Lake Research Partners, Aug 30, Jackley +4.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Jackley +12.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Jackley +12.2
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Jackley +18.3 to Jackley +6.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
Jackley +6.6 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Jackley +16.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Gronli ahead is positive, Jackley ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • Lake Research PartnersJackley +4
    Aug 30 · A/B · 500 LV43 to 47 · 100% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Jackley +6.6

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Dusty Johnson (R) is running for governor instead. Open seat.
On the ballot
Nikki Gronli (D) vs Marty Jackley (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 28.0, Republican 72.0. Johnson by 44.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 63.4, Harris 34.2. Trump by 29.2.
Lean
R+15 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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