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T-minus 16 days

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● Senate // Race file

[ Senate // Arkansas ]

Arkansas

Hallie Shoffner (D)vsTom Cotton (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Solid R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Solid R

99 in 100

Tom Cotton favored>99%

All but certain for Tom Cotton: a 99 percent chance of winning. Polls: Tom Cotton up 8.4.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Solid R
  • Sabato:Safe R
  • Inside Elections:Solid R
  • Odds:Cotton >99%
  • Margin:Cotton +15.6, give or take 5.4
  • Polls:6, averaging Cotton +8.4
  • Latest poll:Hendrix College, Oct 13, Cotton +9.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Cotton +15.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.4 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Cotton +15.6
Uncertainty
5.4 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Cotton +22.6 to Cotton +8.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
Cotton +8.4 across 6 polls, worth 1.1 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Cotton +23.9 before any polls, give or take 8.0

How polls have done here
7 Senate races here since 1998: the final polls missed by 6.8 points on average, on balance underrating Democrats. Last time, 2022, they were off by 10.2 toward Democrats.

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Shoffner ahead is positive, Cotton ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 6 public polls

  • Hendrix CollegeCotton +9
    Oct 13 · B/C · 709 LV41 to 50 · 76% weight
  • GrayHouseCotton +11
    Oct 04 · unrated · 550 LV39 to 50 · 20% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Cotton +5.7
  • J.L. PartnersCotton +16
    Aug 18 · B/C · 803 LV35 to 51 · 2% weight
  • Hendrix CollegeShoffner +3.4
    Aug 12 · B/C · 1,217 LV47 to 44 · 2% weight
  • 2040 Strategy GroupCotton +3
    Jul 25 · unrated · 586 LV43 to 46 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Cotton +6.0
  • GrayHouseCotton +22
    Feb 09 · unrated · 550 LV36 to 58 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Cotton +16.7

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Tom Cotton (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Hallie Shoffner (D) vs Tom Cotton (R, incumbent)
Last time
2020: Tom Cotton (R) 66.5, Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. (L) 33.5. Cotton by 33.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 64.2, Harris 33.6. Trump by 30.6.
The raters
Cook Solid R · Sabato Safe R · Inside Elections Solid R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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