T-minus 16 days
● Senate // Race file
[ Senate // Louisiana ]
Louisiana
Jamie Davis (D)vsJulia Letlow (R)
open seat · Cook: Solid R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Solid R
9 in 10
Julia Letlow favored96%
Very likely for Julia Letlow: a 96 percent chance of winning. Polls: Julia Letlow up 5.5.
- Seat:Open seat
- Cook:Solid R
- Sabato:Safe R
- Inside Elections:Solid R
- Odds:Letlow 96%
- Margin:Letlow +11.3, give or take 5.4
- Polls:2, averaging Letlow +5.5
- Latest poll:Hart Research Associates, Sep 19, Letlow +4.0
- Generic ballot:D+8.2
- T-minus:16 days
▸ Margin // Uncertainty
Letlow +11.3
The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.4 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.
- Projected margin
- Letlow +11.3
- Uncertainty
- 5.4 points, one standard deviation
- Likely range
- Letlow +18.3 to Letlow +4.3 (80 percent)
- Poll average
- Letlow +5.5 across 2 polls, worth 0.1 fresh polls after weighting
- Starting point
- Letlow +18.0 before any polls, give or take 8.0
How polls have done here
9 Senate races here since 2002: the final polls missed by 4.2 points on average, with no steady lean. Last time, 2016, they were off by 1.4 toward Democrats.
Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Davis ahead is positive, Letlow ahead is negative.
▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots
Reading the history
▸ Polls // 2 public polls
- Hart Research AssociatesLetlow +4Sep 19 · A- · 500 LV44 to 48 · 100% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Letlow +5.6
- Public Policy PollingLetlow +4Jul 22 · B+ · 518 RV37 to 41 · 0% weightDemocratic sponsor
| Pollster | Grade | Date | Sample | Result | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research AssociatesDemocratic sponsor | A- | Sep 19 | 500LV | Letlow +444 to 48adjusted Letlow +5.6 | 100% |
| Public Policy PollingDemocratic sponsor | B+ | Jul 22 | 518RV | Letlow +437 to 41 | 0% |
Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.
▸ Race file // The facts
- The seat
- Bill Cassidy (R) is not running again. Open seat.
- On the ballot
- Jamie Davis (D) vs Julia Letlow (R)
- Last time
- 2020: Bill Cassidy (R) 59.3, Adrian Perkins (D) 19.0. Cassidy by 40.3.
- President
- 2024, statewide: Trump 60.2, Harris 38.2. Trump by 22.0.
- The raters
- Cook Solid R · Sabato Safe R · Inside Elections Solid R
Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗
▸ Candidates // Read more
Democrat
Jamie Davis
Davis on Ballotpedia ↗Republican
Julia Letlow
Letlow on Ballotpedia ↗