Massachusetts

Ed Markey (D)vsJohn Deaton (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Solid D

99 in 100

Ed Markey favored>99%

All but certain for Ed Markey: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Ed Markey up 25.7.

Seat:Incumbent running
Cook:Solid D
Sabato:Safe D
Inside Elections:Solid D
Odds:Markey >99%
Margin:Markey +32.2, give or take 5.1
Polls:11, averaging Markey +25.7
Latest poll:MassINC Polling Group, Sep 22, Markey +26.0
Generic ballot:D+8.2
T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Markey +32.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.1 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin: Markey +32.2
Uncertainty: 5.1 points, one standard deviation
Likely range: Markey +25.7 to Markey +38.7 (80 percent)
Poll average: Markey +25.7 across 11 polls, worth 0.4 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point: Markey +38.1 before any polls, give or take 7.0

How polls have done here
10 Senate races here since 2000: the final polls missed by 3.3 points on average, on balance underrating Republicans. Last time, 2024, they were off by 2.1 toward Democrats.

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Markey ahead is positive, Deaton ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 11 public polls

MassINC Polling GroupMarkey +26
Sep 22 · A/B · 800 LV54 to 28 · 78% weight
University of New HampshireMarkey +23
Sep 21 · B- · 556 LV53 to 30 · 15% weight
adjusted Markey +26.0
University of New HampshireMarkey +19
Aug 24 · B- · 906 LV49 to 30 · 4% weight
adjusted Markey +22.0
YouGovMarkey +21
Aug 12 · B · 800 RV51 to 30 · 4% weight
adjusted Markey +20.4
University of New HampshireMarkey +16
Jun 23 · B- · 618 LV50 to 34 · 0% weight
adjusted Markey +19.0
Suffolk UniversityMarkey +25.2
Jun 12 · A- · 500 RV55 to 30 · 0% weight
adjusted Markey +25.3
University of New HampshireMarkey +23
Apr 20 · B- · 603 LV55 to 32 · 0% weight
adjusted Markey +26.0
University of New HampshireMarkey +29
Feb 16 · B- · 616 LV56 to 27 · 0% weight
adjusted Markey +32.0
Cygnal PoliticalMarkey +24
Jan 25 · A · 800 LV54 to 30 · 0% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Markey +27.3
Suffolk UniversityMarkey +23
Nov 23 · A- · 500 RV54 to 31 · 0% weight
adjusted Markey +23.1
SurveyUSAMarkey +19
Mar 04 · A · 775 RV45 to 26 · 0% weight

Pollster	Grade	Date	Sample	Result	Weight
MassINC Polling Group	A/B	Sep 22	800LV	Markey +2654 to 28	78%
University of New Hampshire	B-	Sep 21	556LV	Markey +2353 to 30adjusted Markey +26.0	15%
University of New Hampshire	B-	Aug 24	906LV	Markey +1949 to 30adjusted Markey +22.0	4%
YouGov	B	Aug 12	800RV	Markey +2151 to 30adjusted Markey +20.4	4%
University of New Hampshire	B-	Jun 23	618LV	Markey +1650 to 34adjusted Markey +19.0	0%
Suffolk University	A-	Jun 12	500RV	Markey +25.255 to 30adjusted Markey +25.3	0%
University of New Hampshire	B-	Apr 20	603LV	Markey +2355 to 32adjusted Markey +26.0	0%
University of New Hampshire	B-	Feb 16	616LV	Markey +2956 to 27adjusted Markey +32.0	0%
Cygnal PoliticalRepublican sponsor	A	Jan 25	800LV	Markey +2454 to 30adjusted Markey +27.3	0%
Suffolk University	A-	Nov 23	500RV	Markey +2354 to 31adjusted Markey +23.1	0%
SurveyUSA	A	Mar 04	775RV	Markey +1945 to 26	0%

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat: Ed Markey (D), running for another term.
On the ballot: Ed Markey (D, incumbent) vs John Deaton (R)
Last time: 2020: Ed Markey (D) 66.2, Kevin O'Connor (R) 33.0. Markey by 33.2.
President: 2024, statewide: Trump 36.0, Harris 61.2. Harris by 25.2.
The raters: Cook Solid D · Sabato Safe D · Inside Elections Solid D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

Democrat
Ed Markey
Markey on Ballotpedia ↗
Republican
John Deaton
Deaton on Ballotpedia ↗

◀ Back to the map