Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the map

● Senate // Race file

[ Senate // Colorado ]

Colorado

John Hickenlooper (D)vsMark Baisley (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Solid D

99 in 100

John Hickenlooper favored>99%

All but certain for John Hickenlooper: a 99 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Solid D
  • Sabato:Safe D
  • Inside Elections:Solid D
  • Odds:Hickenlooper >99%
  • Margin:Hickenlooper +19.1, give or take 7.0
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Hickenlooper +19.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 7.0 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Hickenlooper +19.1
Uncertainty
7.0 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Hickenlooper +10.1 to Hickenlooper +28.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Hickenlooper +19.1 before any polls, give or take 7.0

How polls have done here
9 Senate races here since 1998: the final polls missed by 2.4 points on average, with no steady lean. Last time, 2022, they were off by 7.3 toward Republicans.

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Hickenlooper ahead is positive, Baisley ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the model's starting point for the state, Hickenlooper +19.1: the state's partisan lean, the incumbent (John Hickenlooper, running again, worth 3.0 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2). The uncertainty is 7.0 points until polls arrive.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
John Hickenlooper (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
John Hickenlooper (D, incumbent) vs Mark Baisley (R)
Last time
2020: John Hickenlooper (D) 53.5, Cory Gardner (R) 44.2. Hickenlooper by 9.3.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.1, Harris 54.1. Harris by 11.0.
The raters
Cook Solid D · Sabato Safe D · Inside Elections Solid D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the map