Georgia

Jon Ossoff (D)vsMike Collins (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Likely D · Sabato: Likely D · Inside Elections: Lean D

9 in 10

Jon Ossoff favored92%

Very likely for Jon Ossoff: a 92 percent chance of winning. Polls: Jon Ossoff up 9.3.

Seat:Incumbent running
Cook:Likely D
Sabato:Likely D
Inside Elections:Lean D
Odds:Ossoff 92%
Margin:Ossoff +8.8, give or take 5.1
Polls:18, averaging Ossoff +9.3
Latest poll:Trafalgar Group, Oct 09, Ossoff +8.0
Generic ballot:D+8.2
T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Ossoff +8.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.1 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin: Ossoff +8.8
Uncertainty: 5.1 points, one standard deviation
Likely range: Ossoff +2.3 to Ossoff +15.3 (80 percent)
Poll average: Ossoff +9.3 across 18 polls, worth 1.6 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point: Ossoff +8.4 before any polls, give or take 7.0

How polls have done here
15 Senate races here since 1998: the final polls missed by 4.1 points on average, on balance underrating Democrats. Last time, 2022, they were off by 0.9 toward Republicans.

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Ossoff ahead is positive, Collins ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 18 public polls

Trafalgar GroupOssoff +8
Oct 09 · B · 1,101 LV51 to 43 · 20% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Ossoff +10.1
Wedgewood PollsOssoff +10
Oct 03 · unrated · 600 LV55 to 45 · 24% weight
adjusted Ossoff +9.7
Big Data PollOssoff +10.8
Sep 23 · banned · 678 LV55 to 45 · 0% weight
adjusted Ossoff +10.6
InsiderAdvantageOssoff +8
Sep 23 · B+ · 1,200 LV50 to 42 · 18% weight
adjusted Ossoff +8.8
YouGovOssoff +10
Sep 18 · B · 3,301 LV52 to 42 · 26% weight
adjusted Ossoff +9.4
Quantus InsightsOssoff +4.1
Sep 16 · B/C · 645 LV49 to 45 · 7% weight
adjusted Ossoff +7.0
Trafalgar GroupOssoff +6.6
Sep 12 · B · 1,091 LV49 to 43 · 3% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Ossoff +8.7
InsiderAdvantageOssoff +7.5
Aug 17 · B+ · 800 LV50 to 43 · 1% weight
adjusted Ossoff +8.3
Fabrizio Ward/Impact ResearchOssoff +9
Jul 16 · B/C · 1,060 LV52 to 43 · 0% weight
adjusted Ossoff +8.9
WickOssoff +3.8
Jun 30 · B/C · 1,175 LV47 to 43 · 0% weight
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company ResearchOssoff +13
Jun 27 · A- · 1,002 RV56 to 43 · 0% weight
adjusted Ossoff +12.7
Echelon InsightsOssoff +7
Apr 09 · A- · 407 LV51 to 44 · 0% weight
adjusted Ossoff +8.5
Emerson CollegeOssoff +4.4
Mar 02 · A · 1,000 LV48 to 43 · 0% weight
adjusted Ossoff +6.9
Quantus InsightsOssoff +0.1
Sep 12 · B/C · 624 RV38 to 38 · 0% weight
adjusted Ossoff +3.0
TIPP InsightsOssoff +0.8
Aug 01 · A · 2,395 LV45 to 44 · 0% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Ossoff +2.2
Cygnal PoliticalOssoff +2.4
May 17 · A · 800 RV46 to 43 · 0% weight
adjusted Ossoff +2.7
Trafalgar GroupOssoff +4.7
Apr 27 · B · 1,426 LV48 to 43 · 0% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Ossoff +6.8
WPA IntelligenceOssoff +10
Jan 15 · B/C · 500 LV44 to 34 · 0% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Ossoff +13.0

Pollster	Grade	Date	Sample	Result	Weight
Trafalgar GroupRepublican sponsor	B	Oct 09	1,101LV	Ossoff +851 to 43adjusted Ossoff +10.1	20%
Wedgewood Polls	unrated	Oct 03	600LV	Ossoff +1055 to 45adjusted Ossoff +9.7	24%
Big Data Poll	banned	Sep 23	678LV	Ossoff +10.855 to 45adjusted Ossoff +10.6	0%
InsiderAdvantage	B+	Sep 23	1,200LV	Ossoff +850 to 42adjusted Ossoff +8.8	18%
YouGov	B	Sep 18	3,301LV	Ossoff +1052 to 42adjusted Ossoff +9.4	26%
Quantus Insights	B/C	Sep 16	645LV	Ossoff +4.149 to 45adjusted Ossoff +7.0	7%
Trafalgar GroupRepublican sponsor	B	Sep 12	1,091LV	Ossoff +6.649 to 43adjusted Ossoff +8.7	3%
InsiderAdvantage	B+	Aug 17	800LV	Ossoff +7.550 to 43adjusted Ossoff +8.3	1%
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research	B/C	Jul 16	1,060LV	Ossoff +952 to 43adjusted Ossoff +8.9	0%
Wick	B/C	Jun 30	1,175LV	Ossoff +3.847 to 43	0%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research	A-	Jun 27	1,002RV	Ossoff +1356 to 43adjusted Ossoff +12.7	0%
Echelon Insights	A-	Apr 09	407LV	Ossoff +751 to 44adjusted Ossoff +8.5	0%
Emerson College	A	Mar 02	1,000LV	Ossoff +4.448 to 43adjusted Ossoff +6.9	0%
Quantus Insights	B/C	Sep 12	624RV	Ossoff +0.138 to 38adjusted Ossoff +3.0	0%
TIPP InsightsRepublican sponsor	A	Aug 01	2,395LV	Ossoff +0.845 to 44adjusted Ossoff +2.2	0%
Cygnal Political	A	May 17	800RV	Ossoff +2.446 to 43adjusted Ossoff +2.7	0%
Trafalgar GroupRepublican sponsor	B	Apr 27	1,426LV	Ossoff +4.748 to 43adjusted Ossoff +6.8	0%
WPA IntelligenceRepublican sponsor	B/C	Jan 15	500LV	Ossoff +1044 to 34adjusted Ossoff +13.0	0%

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat: Jon Ossoff (D), running for another term.
On the ballot: Jon Ossoff (D, incumbent) vs Mike Collins (R)
Last time: 2020: Jon Ossoff (D) 50.6, David Perdue (R) 49.4. Ossoff by 1.2.
President: 2024, statewide: Trump 50.7, Harris 48.5. Trump by 2.2.
The raters: Cook Likely D · Sabato Likely D · Inside Elections Lean D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

Democrat
Jon Ossoff
Ossoff on Ballotpedia ↗
Republican
Mike Collins
Collins on Ballotpedia ↗

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