New Hampshire

Chris Pappas (D)vsJohn Sununu (R)

open seat · Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Tossup

9 in 10

Chris Pappas favored95%

Very likely for Chris Pappas: a 95 percent chance of winning. Polls: Chris Pappas up 7.5.

Seat:Open seat
Cook:Lean D
Sabato:Lean D
Inside Elections:Tossup
Odds:Pappas 95%
Margin:Pappas +10.7, give or take 5.4
Polls:23, averaging Pappas +7.5
Latest poll:YouGov, Oct 05, Pappas +8.0
Generic ballot:D+8.2
T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Pappas +10.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.4 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin: Pappas +10.7
Uncertainty: 5.4 points, one standard deviation
Likely range: Pappas +3.7 to Pappas +17.7 (80 percent)
Poll average: Pappas +7.5 across 23 polls, worth 1.5 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point: Pappas +14.6 before any polls, give or take 8.0

How polls have done here
8 Senate races here since 2002: the final polls missed by 3.8 points on average, with no steady lean. Last time, 2022, they were off by 7.2 toward Republicans.

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Pappas ahead is positive, Sununu ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 23 public polls

YouGovPappas +8
Oct 05 · B · 1,519 LV51 to 43 · 40% weight
adjusted Pappas +7.4
St. AnselmPappas +7
Sep 29 · A/B · 1,042 LV51 to 44 · 12% weight
adjusted Pappas +7.6
Trafalgar GroupPappas +6.9
Sep 27 · B · 1,082 LV47 to 41 · 10% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Pappas +9.0
The New York Times/Siena UniversityPappas +5
Sep 22 · A · 613 LV50 to 45 · 16% weight
adjusted Pappas +6.4
University of New HampshirePappas +8
Sep 21 · B- · 1,392 LV50 to 42 · 5% weight
adjusted Pappas +11.0
InsiderAdvantagePappas +7.9
Sep 17 · B+ · 1,200 LV48 to 40 · 11% weight
adjusted Pappas +8.7
co/efficientTie
Sep 11 · B · 958 LV46 to 46 · 3% weight
adjusted Pappas +3.0
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesSununu +1
Aug 30 · A/B · 600 LV36 to 37 · 1% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Pappas +2.0
University of New HampshireSununu +2
Aug 24 · B- · 1,846 LV43 to 45 · 1% weight
adjusted Pappas +1.0
St. AnselmPappas +7
Aug 18 · A/B · 1,411 LV48 to 41 · 1% weight
adjusted Pappas +7.6
Peak InsightsPappas +1
Jun 27 · B/C · 500 LV43 to 42 · 0% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Pappas +7.0
St. AnselmPappas +6
Jun 25 · A/B · 1,614 RV47 to 41 · 0% weight
adjusted Pappas +6.6
University of New HampshirePappas +3
Jun 23 · B- · 2,157 LV47 to 44 · 0% weight
adjusted Pappas +6.0
University of New HampshirePappas +7
Apr 21 · B- · 1,130 LV49 to 42 · 0% weight
adjusted Pappas +10.0
Emerson CollegePappas +1.7
Mar 23 · A · 1,100 LV45 to 44 · 0% weight
adjusted Pappas +4.2
yes. every kid. foundation.Pappas +4
Jan 29 · unrated · 563 LV45 to 41 · 0% weight
University of New HampshirePappas +5
Jan 19 · B- · 2,038 LV50 to 45 · 0% weight
adjusted Pappas +8.0
Praecones AnalyticaPappas +6.7
Dec 28 · B/C · 603 RV42 to 36 · 0% weight
Guidant Polling and StrategyPappas +3
Dec 11 · unrated · 600 LV47 to 44 · 0% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Pappas +5.8
St. AnselmPappas +3
Nov 19 · A/B · 2,212 RV44 to 41 · 0% weight
adjusted Pappas +3.6
co/efficientPappas +3
Oct 13 · B · 1,034 LV45 to 42 · 0% weight
adjusted Pappas +6.0
co/efficientPappas +3
Sep 12 · B · 904 LV46 to 43 · 0% weight
adjusted Pappas +6.0
1892 PollingPappas +2
Sep 04 · B/C · 500 LV45 to 43 · 0% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Pappas +5.0

Pollster	Grade	Date	Sample	Result	Weight
YouGov	B	Oct 05	1,519LV	Pappas +851 to 43adjusted Pappas +7.4	40%
St. Anselm	A/B	Sep 29	1,042LV	Pappas +751 to 44adjusted Pappas +7.6	12%
Trafalgar GroupRepublican sponsor	B	Sep 27	1,082LV	Pappas +6.947 to 41adjusted Pappas +9.0	10%
The New York Times/Siena University	A	Sep 22	613LV	Pappas +550 to 45adjusted Pappas +6.4	16%
University of New Hampshire	B-	Sep 21	1,392LV	Pappas +850 to 42adjusted Pappas +11.0	5%
InsiderAdvantage	B+	Sep 17	1,200LV	Pappas +7.948 to 40adjusted Pappas +8.7	11%
co/efficient	B	Sep 11	958LV	Tie46 to 46adjusted Pappas +3.0	3%
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesRepublican sponsor	A/B	Aug 30	600LV	Sununu +136 to 37adjusted Pappas +2.0	1%
University of New Hampshire	B-	Aug 24	1,846LV	Sununu +243 to 45adjusted Pappas +1.0	1%
St. Anselm	A/B	Aug 18	1,411LV	Pappas +748 to 41adjusted Pappas +7.6	1%
Peak InsightsRepublican sponsor	B/C	Jun 27	500LV	Pappas +143 to 42adjusted Pappas +7.0	0%
St. Anselm	A/B	Jun 25	1,614RV	Pappas +647 to 41adjusted Pappas +6.6	0%
University of New Hampshire	B-	Jun 23	2,157LV	Pappas +347 to 44adjusted Pappas +6.0	0%
University of New Hampshire	B-	Apr 21	1,130LV	Pappas +749 to 42adjusted Pappas +10.0	0%
Emerson College	A	Mar 23	1,100LV	Pappas +1.745 to 44adjusted Pappas +4.2	0%
yes. every kid. foundation.	unrated	Jan 29	563LV	Pappas +445 to 41	0%
University of New Hampshire	B-	Jan 19	2,038LV	Pappas +550 to 45adjusted Pappas +8.0	0%
Praecones Analytica	B/C	Dec 28	603RV	Pappas +6.742 to 36	0%
Guidant Polling and StrategyRepublican sponsor	unrated	Dec 11	600LV	Pappas +347 to 44adjusted Pappas +5.8	0%
St. Anselm	A/B	Nov 19	2,212RV	Pappas +344 to 41adjusted Pappas +3.6	0%
co/efficient	B	Oct 13	1,034LV	Pappas +345 to 42adjusted Pappas +6.0	0%
co/efficient	B	Sep 12	904LV	Pappas +346 to 43adjusted Pappas +6.0	0%
1892 PollingRepublican sponsor	B/C	Sep 04	500LV	Pappas +245 to 43adjusted Pappas +5.0	0%

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat: Jeanne Shaheen (D) is not running again. Open seat.
On the ballot: Chris Pappas (D) vs John Sununu (R)
Last time: 2020: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 56.7, Corky Messner (R) 41.0. Shaheen by 15.7.
President: 2024, statewide: Trump 47.9, Harris 50.6. Harris by 2.8.
The raters: Cook Lean D · Sabato Lean D · Inside Elections Tossup

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

Democrat
Chris Pappas
Pappas on Ballotpedia ↗
Republican
John Sununu
Sununu on Ballotpedia ↗

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