Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● Senate // Race file

[ Senate // New Jersey ]

New Jersey

Cory Booker (D)vsJustin Murphy (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Solid D

99 in 100

Cory Booker favored>99%

All but certain for Cory Booker: a 99 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Solid D
  • Sabato:Safe D
  • Inside Elections:Solid D
  • Odds:Booker >99%
  • Margin:Booker +20.0, give or take 7.0
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Booker +20.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 7.0 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Booker +20.0
Uncertainty
7.0 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Booker +11.0 to Booker +29.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Booker +20.0 before any polls, give or take 7.0

How polls have done here
10 Senate races here since 2000: the final polls missed by 3.8 points on average, with no steady lean. Last time, 2024, they were off by 9.4 toward Democrats.

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Booker ahead is positive, Murphy ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the model's starting point for the state, Booker +20.0: the state's partisan lean, the incumbent (Cory Booker, running again, worth 3.0 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2). The uncertainty is 7.0 points until polls arrive.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Cory Booker (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Cory Booker (D, incumbent) vs Justin Murphy (R)
Last time
2020: Cory Booker (D) 57.2, Rik Mehta (R) 40.9. Booker by 16.3.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 46.1, Harris 52.0. Harris by 5.9.
The raters
Cook Solid D · Sabato Safe D · Inside Elections Solid D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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